美国拉美裔人口力量与政治声量的错位及其深层原因探究  

Latino Population and Political Power in the United States and its Underlying Causes

作　　者：陆杰华[1] 谷俞辰 LU Jie-hua;GU Yu-chen(Department of Sociology,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学社会学系,北京100871

出　　处：《西北人口》2024年第2期25-37,共13页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金重大项目“实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略研究”(编号:20ZDA32)。

摘　　要：近年来,美国西语裔/拉美裔依托高人口增长率,取代非裔黑人成为美国最大的少数族裔,推动美国社会、文化、政治面貌发生根本性变迁。从国别人口学和国际政治学的角度出发,基于美国人口普查数据与总统大选民调数据,分析西语裔/拉美裔人口结构性变动及其政治影响力,具有重要的理论和实证价值。研究结果发现,近40年来拉美裔人口规模持续稳定扩大,未来也将保持较高增速,正成为美国人口及少数族裔增长的首要动力。然而,拉美裔人口力量与政治声量存在明显错位,主要表现在政治参与和政治立场两个层面:一方面,受人口要素结构和社会经济特征的作用,拉美裔参与选举政治的资格不足、意愿较低,且集中居住在特定选区,选民力量没能实现与人口规模的同步增长,严重影响其作为少数族裔的政治表达力量;另一方面,拉美裔涵盖子族裔众多,党派立场相异甚至对立,且群体内部呈现出鲜明的代际差异,族裔身份和政治取向比较模糊,没能形成类似其他少数族裔的归属意识和政治团结,造成政治声量的进一步分散。因此,从政治参与和政治立场两个方面可以发现,拉美裔的影响力和影响方向仍处于变动之中,其在美国选举政治中的角色表征正是人口要素与政治行为叠加的结果,探讨其政治力量与人口规模不匹配的深层原因,体现出国别人口学视角重要的研究价值。According to the 2020 U.S.census data,Hispanics/Latinos have surpassed blacks to become the largest minority in the United States in recent years due to their high population growth rate.This change in ethnic structure is bound to have a more profound impact on the society,culture and politics of the United States.From the perspective of national demography and international politics,it is of great theoretical and empirical value to analyze the structural changes of Hispanic/Latino population and their political influence based on the U.S.census data and presidential election poll data.The results show that Hispanic population has grown steadily over the past 40 years and will continue to grow at a high rate in the future,becoming the primary driver of population and minority growth in the United States.However,there is a serious mismatch between Latino population and political power in the United States,which is mainly manifested in two levels of political participation and political stance.On the one hand,due to the population structure and socio-economic characteristics,Hispanics have insufficient qualifications and low willingness to partici-pate in electoral politics and concentrated in certain electoral districts.Therefore,the Latno voter power has not kept pace with population size,severely affecting its political expression as a minority.On the other hand,Hispanics have many sub-ethnic groups,whose party positions are different or even opposite.Moreover,there are distinct intergenera-tional differences within the group,resulting in blurred ethnic identities and political orientations.The failure to devel-op a sense of belonging and political unity similar to that of other ethnic minorities resulted in further fragmentation of the political voice.Overall,from the two aspects of political participation and stance,the influence and its direction of Latinos is still in flux and the change of the role of Latinos in election politics is the result of the superposition of demo-graphic factors and political behav

关 键 词：美国族裔结构 拉美裔 西语裔 选举政治 

分 类 号：C924.712[社会学—人口学]