简论干地施工码头深基坑坍塌风险分析  

Analysis of Risk in Collapse of Deep Foundation Pit in Dry Construction of Wharf

作　　者：邹德臣 王海亮 边超 Zou Dechen;Wang Hailiang;Bian Chao(Tianjin Deep Foundation Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300222,China;Academy of Mining and Safety Engineering,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao Shandong 266400,China)

机构地区：[1]天津深基工程有限公司,天津300222 [2]山东科技大学矿业与安全工程学院,山东青岛266400

出　　处：《港口航道与近海工程》2024年第1期140-145,共6页Port,Waterway and Offshore Engineering

摘　　要：采用事故树与层次分析相结合的方法对干地施工码头深基坑坍塌风险进行定性与定量相结合的研究,提出“i与j概率比参考取值”,结合工程实例和事故统计数据探讨评估方法的优缺点,分析结果偏差原因,查找重要危险因素,评定风险等级,从而有针对性地预防和管理风险,为类似工程风险分析提供参考。研究表明:(1)风险评估不可避免的会融入主观判断因素,需要基于大量详实的统计数据修正误差;(2)重要性相差越悬殊的因素,构造判断矩阵后计算概率产生的误差越大;(3)层次分析法构造判断矩阵和求解简便,计算概率与总体趋势具有较高一致性;(4)经评定实例深基坑坍塌风险等级为Ⅱ级。The risk in collapse of deep foundation pit in dry construction of wharf is studied qualitatively and quantitatively based on the combination of FTA and AHP.The reference value is proposed according to the probability ratio between i and j.Construction cases are combined with accident statistics to find the advantages and disadvantages of evaluation methods,analyze the causes for deviation,determine critical risk factors,and classify the risks,which assist risk prevention and control,and provide a reference for similar projects.The research results show that any risk evaluation may be affected by some judgemental points,thus a large amount of real-measured statistics are requested to correct errors;The greater the difference between the importance of factors,the wider the deviation produced by calculating probabilities based on the decision matrix;AHP applies to the establishment of decision matrix and solution,the calculation results of probabilities highly consist with general trend;Based on engineering practice,the risk in collapse deep foundation pit is evaluated to be level II.

关 键 词：风险分析 风险评估 基坑坍塌 层次分析 事故树 码头 

分 类 号：X947[环境科学与工程—安全科学]