基于CMIP6多模式的黄土高原气温变化模拟评估及情景预估  

Historical Evaluation and Scenario Prediction of Temperature Changes the Loess Plateau Based on CMIP6 Multimodels

作　　者：豆明玉 段克勤 石培宏 孟雅丽 陈荣 侯晓静 Dou Mingyu;Duan Keqin;Shi Peihong;Meng Yali;Chen Rong;Hou Xiaojing(School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi′an 710119,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,西安710119

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2024年第2期158-167,共10页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：中国博士后资助项目(2017M610622,2017BSHEDZZ18);陕西省自然科学基金面上项目(2023-JC-YB-259)。

摘　　要：[目的]明晰黄土高原未来气温增加趋势和幅度,以期为黄土高原未来气温变化决策事件和防洪减灾等提供参考。[方法]基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中的22个地球-气候系统模式的模拟结果,通过观测数据系统评估了各模式历史时期(1961—2014年)模拟能力后,选用较好的10个模式的集合平均,对不同共享社会经济路径(SSPs)下黄土高原2015—2100年气温的时空变化特征进行了分析。[结果]在SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下,2015—2100年黄土高原增温速率分别达到了0.09℃/10 a,0.28℃/10 a,0.48℃/10 a,0.66℃/10 a,且相对于1995—2014年,2081—2100年增温分别达1.53℃,2.69℃,3.83℃,5.25℃。除SSP1-2.6情景外,其余情景增温已远远超过《巴黎协定》全球2℃升温的目标,而且在SSP5-8.5情景下,2041—2060年增温已达2.44℃。SSP5-8.5情景下,2081—2100年黄土高原春、夏、秋和冬季气温相对于1995—2014年增温幅度变化范围为3.83~4.75℃,4.75~5.67℃,4.98~5.67℃,4.29~5.67℃。[结论]未来黄土高原将面临强大的增温压力,排放情景越高增温越显著,未来应加强对黄土高原气温的观测研究。[Objective]The aims of this study are to clarify the future trend and magnitude of temperature increase in the Loess Plateau,and to provide reference for future temperature change decision-making events,flood control and disaster reduction in the Loess Plateau.[Methods]This study was based on the simulation results of 22 Earth-climate system models in the latest sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).After systematically assessing the simulation capability of each model historical period(1961—2014)through observational data,the multi-model ensemble of 10 models was selected to analyze the temperature change characters in the Loess Plateau from 2015 to 2100 under different shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs).[Results]The warming rate of the Loess Plateau reaches 0.09℃/decade,0.28℃/decade,0.48℃/decade and 0.66℃/decade in 2015—2100 under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively.By contrast to 1995—2014,the warming reaches 1.53℃,2.69℃,3.83℃and 5.25℃in 2081—2100,respectively.Except for the SSP1-2.6 emission scenario,the warming in other scenarios has far exceeded the target of limiting global 2℃warming in the Paris Agreement,and under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario,the warming in 2041—2060 has already reached 2.36℃.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,even the spring,summer,autumn and winter temperatures in the Loess Plateau from 2081 to 2100 vary in the range of 3.83~4.75℃,4.75~5.67℃,4.98~5.67℃and 4.29~5.67℃compared to 1995—2014.[Conclusion]The Loess Plateau will face a strong warming pressure in the future,with a higher rate of temperature increase under the higher emission scenarios.The observational research on the temperature of the Loess Plateau should be strengthened in the future.

关 键 词：CMIP6 气温 黄土高原 SSP情景 未来时期 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]