云南省1961-2020年降水结构时空变化特征  

Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Precipitation Structure in Yunnan Province from 1961 to 2020

作　　者：任子康 赵华荣[1,2,3] 师康铭 杨国梁 Ren Zikang;Zhao Huarong;Shi Kangming;Yang Guoliang(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin,Guangxi 541006,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Pollution Control and Water Safety Assurance in Karst Areas,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin,Guangxi 541006,China;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Theory and Technology for Environmental Pollution Control,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin,Guangxi 541006,China)

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学环境科学与工程学院,广西桂林541006 [2]桂林理工大学广西岩溶地区水污染控制与用水安全保障协同创新中心,广西桂林541006 [3]桂林理工大学广西环境污染控制理论与技术重点实验室,广西桂林541006

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2024年第2期168-180,共13页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：广西重点研发项目(桂科AB21075007);桂林市科学技术研究开发项目(20210212-2)。

摘　　要：[目的]揭示近60 a云南省降水结构的变化,加强对云南省降水的监测和预警,为云南省水旱灾害风险评估提供科学参考依据。[方法]基于云南省32个气象站点逐日降水观测数据,引入降水发生率和降水贡献率两个指标,利用创新趋势分析法(ITA)、Mann-Kendall检验法和反距离权重法(IDW),探讨了在不同降水历时和降水等级下,降水结构时空变化的特征。[结果](1)降水发生率随降水历时增加呈减少趋势,降水贡献率呈先增加后减少趋势,云南省以短历时降水为主。空间上,短历时降水发生率和贡献率整体呈现自东北向西南递减趋势,长历时与之相反。(2)随降水等级的提升,降水发生率呈增加趋势,降水贡献率呈先增加后减少趋势,云南省降水以小雨为主。空间上,小雨发生率呈自北向南递减趋势,中雨、大雨和暴雨发生率趋势与之相反。小雨和中雨贡献率呈自西北向东南递减趋势,大雨和暴雨与之相反。滇中、滇南和滇西南地区大雨和暴雨发生率和贡献率均较高,可能造成洪涝灾害的风险较大。(3)不同降水历时下,大多数站点短历时降水发生率和贡献率呈增加趋势,上升幅度大于5%,长历时呈5%以上下降趋势。不同降水等级下,大多数站点的小雨发生率、贡献率呈10%以内下降趋势,大雨和暴雨发生率、贡献率呈5%以上的上升趋势。[结论]云南省短历时大雨和暴雨发生概率有所上升,地区发生洪涝灾害和土壤侵蚀的几率增大,未来应持续对其降水结构进行监测研究。[Objective]The aims of this study are to reveal the changes of precipitation structure in Yunnan Province in the last 60 years,to strengthen the monitoring and early warning of precipitation in Yunnan Province,and to provide scientific reference basis for the risk assessment of water and drought disasters in Yunnan Province.[Methods]Based on daily precipitation observation data from 32 meteorological stations in Yunnan Province,two indicators of precipitation occurrence and precipitation contribution were introduced,and the characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of precipitation structure under different precipitation durations and precipitation grades were explored by using innovative trend analysis(ITA),Mann-Kendall test and inverse distance weighting(IDW)method.[Results](1)The precipitation occurrence rate tended to decrease with the increase of precipitation calendar time,and the precipitation contribution rate tended to increase and then decrease,with short calendar time precipitation dominating in Yunnan Province.Spatially,the precipitation occurrence rate and contribution rate of short calendar period showed an overall decreasing trend from northeast to southwest,while the opposite was true for long calendar period.(2)As the precipitation level increased,the precipitation occurrence rate tended to increase and the precipitation contribution rate tended to increase and then decrease,with light rainfall dominating in Yunnan Province.Spatially,the occurrence rate of light rain was decreasing from north to south,while the occurrence rate of medium rain,heavy rain and heavy rain was the opposite trend.The contribution rate of light and moderate rainfall showed a decreasing trend from northwest to southeast,and the contribution rate of heavy and torrential rainfall showed the opposite trend compared with that of the light and moderate rainfall.The occurrence and contribution rate of heavy and torrential rainfall were higher in central,southern and southwestern Yunnan,which might cause higher risk of f

关 键 词：降水发生率 降水贡献率 反距离权重法 创新趋势分析 降水历时 降水等级 云南省 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]