基于Knox模型分析2019年中缅边境地区景洪市登革热时空聚集性特征  

Spatial-temporal clustering characteristics of dengue fever based on Knox model analysis in the China-Myanmar border area,Jinghong,China,2019

作　　者：唐烨榕 周红宁[2] 马文军 肖建鹏 赵建国 张倩 李菁华 TANG Ye-rong;ZHOU Hong-ning;MA Wen-jun;XIAO Jian-peng;ZHAO Jian-guo;ZHANG Qian;LI Jing-hua(School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510080,China;Yunnan Innovative Team of Key Techniques for Vector-borne Disease Control and Prevention,Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory of Vector-borne Diseases Control and Research,Yunan International Joint Laboratory of Tropical Infectious Diseases,Yunnan Institute of Parasitic Diseases,Pu'er,Yunnan 665000,China;Ji'nan University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510632,China;Guangdong Provincial Institution of Public Health,Guangzhou,Guangdong 511400,China;Guangdong Pharmaceutical University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510006,China;Global Health Research Center,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510080,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学公共卫生学院,广东广州510080 [2]云南省虫媒传染病防控关键技术创新团队,云南省虫媒传染病防控研究重点实验室,云南省热带传染病国际联合实验室,云南省寄生虫病防治所,云南普洱665000 [3]暨南大学,广东广州510632 [4]广东省公共卫生研究院,广东广州511400 [5]广东药科大学,广东广州510006 [6]中山大学全球卫生研究中心,广东广州510080

出　　处：《中国媒介生物学及控制杂志》2024年第1期56-62,共7页Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control

基　　金：云南省重点研发计划项目(202103AQ100001);云南省重大科技专项(2017ZF007);国家自然科学基金(U1602223)。

摘　　要：目的 分析中缅边境地区登革热流行特征,探讨不同时空尺度下登革热时空聚集性特点。方法 收集中缅边境地区云南省景洪市2019年登革热病例数据,采用Knox模型对登革热时空聚集性进行分析。结果 初步确定景洪市登革热传播平均时间距离为23.49 d,平均空间距离为5.54 km。其中,时间间隔在1 d时,空间距离在0.40~0.50 km内,发病风险处于最高水平[相对危险度(RR)≈2.00];空间距离在>0.50~1.00 km内,发病风险处于较高水平(RR>1.60),空间距离在>1.00~2.00 km内,发病风险处于中等水平(RR≥1.40);空间距离在15.00 km时仍RR>1.00。在不同特征人群(性别、年龄、职业)中,登革热时空传播规律具有异质性,长时间短距离接触人群时空聚集强度最强。从职业方面来看,大尺度下(0~1.00 km)工人-工人病例对子最强,小尺度下(0~0.10 km)农民-农民病例对子最强。结论 景洪市登革热传播风险随时间和空间距离增加而快速下降,且在不同尺度不同特征人群(性别、年龄、职业)下时空聚集具有明显差异。Objective To describe the epidemiological characteristics of dengue fever in the China-Myanmar border area,and to explore the spatial-temporal clustering characteristics of dengue fever at different spatial-temporal scales.Methods The data on dengue fever cases were collected in the China-Myanmar border area,Jinghong,China in 2019,and a spatial-temporal clustering analysis of dengue fever was performed using a Knox model.Results In this study,the average time interval and average spatial distance of dengue fever transmission in Jinghong were 23.49 d and 5.54 km,respectively.When the time interval was 1 day,the risk of dengue fever was highest(RR≈2.00)at a spatial distance of 0.40-0.50 km,relatively high(RR>1.60)at>0.50-1.00 km,and moderate(RR≥1.40)at 1.00-2.00 km;and the RR was still>1.00 at a distance of 15.00 km.Among populations of different characteristics(sex,age,and occupation),the spatial-temporal transmission pattern of dengue fever was heterogeneous,and the strength of spatiotemporal clustering was strongest in people with long-time and short-distance contact.For occupations,worker-worker case pairs had the highest strength at a large scale(0-1.00 km),and farmer-farmer case pairs had the highest strength at a small scale(0-0.10 km).Conclusion The risk of dengue fever transmission in Jinghong decreases rapidly with an increasing time interval and spatial distance,and spatial-temporal clustering is markedly heterogeneous at different scales and in populations of different characteristics(sex,age,and occupation).

关 键 词：登革热 Knox模型 时空聚集性 中缅边境地区 

分 类 号：R181.2[医药卫生—流行病学] R183.5[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]