计及马尔科夫链的能源社区产消者贝叶斯博弈策略  

Bayesian Game Strategy for Energy Communities with Prosumers Considering Markov Chain

作　　者：张虹 孙书朋 李亚洲 孟庆尧 马泽群 刘旭 ZHANG Hong;SUN Shupeng;LI Yazhou;MENG Qingyao;MA Zequn;LIU Xu(Key Laboratory of Modern Power System Simulation and Control&Renewable Energy Technology of Ministry of Education(Northeast Electric Power University),Jilin 132012,China;State Grid Chengde Power Supply Company,Chengde 067000,China;DatangJilin Power Generation Co.,Ltd.Changchun Third Thermal Power Branch,Changchun 130103,China;State Grid Yongkang Power Supply Company,Yongkang 321300,China)

机构地区：[1]现代电力系统仿真控制与绿色电能新技术教育部重点实验室(东北电力大学),吉林吉林132012 [2]国网承德供电公司,河北承德067000 [3]大唐吉林发电有限公司长春第三热电分公司,吉林长春130103 [4]国网永康供电公司,浙江永康321300

出　　处：《智慧电力》2024年第3期39-46,79,共9页Smart Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52007026)。

摘　　要：随着电力系统用户侧能源转型比例的不断提高,传统的社区用电居民逐步向着能源社区产消者转变,并通过能源交易的方式来促进分布式能源就地消纳。在此背景下,通过构建贝叶斯博弈能源交易模型,实现能源社区产消者之间的自主能源交易。首先,针对交易过程中产消者交易身份的不确定性问题,采用马尔科夫链对其身份状态概率进行分析。然后,将概率分布作为先验概率,建立能源社区产消者能源交易的贝叶斯博弈模型,对产消者之间的能源交易过程进行优化。最后,通过算例验证了所提模型在保证产消者隐私性的同时提高了其自身的收益。With the continuous increases in the proportion of user side energy transformation in the power system,the traditional community power users are gradually transformed into prosumers in an energy community,and the local consumption of distributed energy is promoted through energy trading.In this context,this paper constructs a Bayesian game energy trading model to realize the autonomous energy trading among the prosumers in the energy community.Firstly,aiming at the uncertainty of the transaction identity of the prosumers,the Markov chain is used to analyze the status probability of transaction status.Then taking the probability distribution as a prior probability,the Bayesian game model of the energy trading among the prosumers in the energy community is established to optimize the process of the energy trading among the prosumers.Finally,an example is given to verify that the proposed model can ensure the privacy of the prosumers while improving the income of the prosumers.

关 键 词：产消者 马尔科夫链 交易身份 不确定性 贝叶斯博弈 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]