协调公平与效率的“四水四定”研究Ⅰ:方法与模型  

Study on“water dominates development”based on equity and efficiency Ⅰ:methodology and model

作　　者：游进军[1] 贾玲[1] 杨朝晖[1] 汪林[1] 王婷 YOU Jinjun;JIA Ling;YANG Zhaohui;WANG Lin;WANG Ting(China institute of water resources and Hydropower Research,State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《水利学报》2024年第2期158-166,共9页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52079143,52209042);国家重点研发计划课题(2023YFF1304202,2018YFC0407705);中国工程院院地合作重大项目(2022NXZD1)。

摘　　要：针对水资源刚性约束落地缺抓手的问题,按照以水定发展、协调定规模的理念,提出“四水四定”的分析思路和控制指标,厘清各类发展目标与水资源利用的协调关系。以公平为社会目标,以效益为经济目标,提出“尊重现状、保障刚需、效率驱动、区域均衡”的协调优化准则,建立目标函数和约束条件,构建“四水四定”多目标协调模型,以满足保障刚性需求基础上的水量高效流转,确定发展规模和水量分配方案。模型选取人均GDP最大实现效率驱动,使有限水量产生更大效益;选取区域人均GDP差异最小、发展匹配度最高实现发展公平,缩小区域经济差异;通过约束条件反映水资源约束、刚性需求保障、水源用户配置关系、经济社会发展合理范围等要求;设置罚函数协调约束条件不能满足时的目标值调整。通过归一化方法将多目标转化为单目标,基于现状设置初始条件,采用线性规划等方法求解,得出协调产业发展和水量优化分配的整体结果,通过结果评价反馈调整,形成可服务于经济社会发展和水资源管控决策的方案。Aiming at the problems in implementation of water resources constraint,the concept of“water dominates development”is interpreted under principle of scale control and coordination.By identifying the internal relationship between water and the four aspects of“human,industry,land,and urban”,the control indicators and coordination optimization criteria for“Water dominates development”are proposed as“Four Determinations”.An analytical approach is proposed including indicator identification analysis,coordinated optimization calculation,development quality evaluation,and control measures.The coordination optimization criteria and constraint relationships for“Four Determinations”are clarified based on the principles of“respecting the status quo,ensuring basic needs,efficiency-driving,and regional balance”.A multi-objective optimization model is established to drive efficiency and achieve regional balance,with constraints of water availability and allocation relationships.The model selects the maximum per capita GDP as the economic goal to achieve efficiency driven principles,so that limited water supply can support greater output benefits.The other objective is degree of matching between population and industrial distribution as the social goal,so that regional economic development differences can be narrowed to ensure the development fairness.By setting constraints to ensure the rigid demand for strategic development,controlling the reasonable range of regional water allocation and economic growth,the overall results of industrial development coordination and water optimization allocation are obtained.In response to the“Four Determinations”plan,evaluation indicators are selected from four aspects:development level,coordination,efficiency,and ecology.An evaluation indicator system and evaluation method are constructed to adapt to high-quality development goals,and control measures that can implement the“Water dominates development”control direction are proposed.

关 键 词：水资源刚性约束 四水四定 水资源配置 多目标协调优化 用水效率 综合评价 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]