缺水胁迫区水系统优化调控理论与模式  

Theory and pattern of optimal regulation of water system in water shortage stress area

作　　者：赵勇[1] 常奂宇 李海红[1] 秦长海[1] 何凡[1] 曲军霖 ZHAO Yong;CHANG Huanyu;LI Haihong;QIN Changhai;HE Fan;QU Junlin(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis,Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin 300387,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]天津师范大学京津冀生态文明发展研究院,天津300387

出　　处：《水利学报》2024年第2期202-213,225,共13页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金项目(52025093);国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200204)。

摘　　要：开展水系统优化调控是实现缺水胁迫区人-水-生态和谐可持续发展的关键措施之一,对于保障地区经济社会稳定发展和生态健康具有重要意义。本文以京津冀作为典型缺水胁迫区案例,通过解析水系统内涵,总结得出缺水胁迫区水系统存在深度耦合、强烈竞争和系统失衡三大现象,发现水系统呈现非稳态和稳态之间交替演进的模式,并通过构建水系统稳态指数,研判了京津冀地区水系统状态变化发展过程。研究以实现自然社会水系统健康为调控目标,提出缺水胁迫区水系统“高内聚-低耦合”解耦式调控模式,结合京津冀现实状态,在需求侧开展“保障刚需-压缩弹性-抑制奢侈”层次化调控,在供给侧进行“自然水网-人工水网-虚拟水网”适配性优化,提出京津冀“三线七河、四区八源”一体化水网布局,进而实现水系统的整体健康。The optimal regulation of water system is one of the key measures to realize the harmonious and sustainable development of human-water-ecology in water shortage stress area,which is of great significance to ensure the stable development of regional economy and society and ecological health.In this paper,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is taken as a typical case of water shortage stress region.By analyzing the connotation of water system,it is concluded that the water system in the water shortage stress region has three phenomena:deep coupling,strong competition and system imbalance,and it is found that the water system presents an alternating evolution pattern between unsteady and steady state.The state change and development process of the water system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is evaluated by constructing the steady state index of the water system.In order to achieve the health of natural social water systems,a decoupling regulation model of“high cohesion-low coupling”is proposed.Based on the current situation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,a hierarchical regulation of“ensuring rigid-reducing flexible-restraining luxury”is carried out on the water demand side,and the adaptation optimization of“natural water network-artificial water network-virtual water network”is carried out on the water supply side,and the integrated water network layout of“three lines,seven rivers,four districts and eight sources”is proposed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,so as to achieve the overall health of the water system.

关 键 词：缺水胁迫区 水系统 演进机制 调控模式 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]