2017-2022年南京市水痘突发公共卫生事件的空间聚集特征分析  

Spatial clustering analysis of varicella public health emergency events in Nanjing City from 2017 to 2022

作　　者：朱澜澜 张钟[1] 卞增惠[1] 许阳婷[1] 孙红敏 刘婷 ZHU Lanlan;ZHANG Zhong;BIAN Zenghui;XU Yangting;SUN Hongmin;LIU Ting(Emergency Management Office,Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210003,China)

机构地区：[1]南京市疾病预防控制中心应急办,江苏南京210003

出　　处：《预防医学》2024年第3期215-218,共4页CHINA PREVENTIVE MEDICINE JOURNAL

基　　金：2022年度南京市卫生科技发展专项资金项目(GBX22308)。

摘　　要：目的了解2017—2022年南京市水痘突发公共卫生事件的空间聚集特征,为制定水痘疫情防控策略提供依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统突发公共卫生事件管理信息系统,收集2017—2022年南京市水痘突发公共卫生事件资料,采用ArcGIS 10.2软件进行趋势面分析、空间自相关分析和热点分析,了解南京市水痘突发公共卫生事件的空间聚集特征。结果2017—2022年南京市累计报告水痘突发公共卫生事件84起,病例2558例,平均水痘罹患率为2.53%。事件级别以一般事件为主,76起占90.48%。趋势面分析结果显示,2017—2022年南京市水痘突发公共卫生事件呈现西低东高、北低南高的特征;全局空间自相关分析结果显示,2017年和2019年水痘突发公共卫生事件在乡镇尺度上呈空间正相关,存在空间聚集性(P<0.05);热点分析提示高发区域为江宁区、高淳区、雨花台区和建邺区。结论2017—2022年南京市水痘突发公共卫生事件存在空间聚集性,主要集中在江宁区、高淳区等郊区。Objective To investigate the spatial clustering characteristics of varicella public health emergency events in Nanjing City from 2017 to 2022,so as to provide the evidence for the development of varicella prevention and control strategies.Methods Data of varicella public health emergency events in Nanjing City from 2017 to 2022 were collect⁃ed through Emergency Public Health Management Information System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Informa⁃tion System.The software ArcGIS 10.2 was employed for trend-surface analysis,spatial autocorrelation analysis and hot⁃spot analysis to understand the spatial clustering characteristics of varicella public health emergency events.Results A total of 84 varicella public health emergency events were reported in Nanjing City from 2017 to 2022,with an average attack rate of 2.53%(2558 cases).Ⅳ-level events were predominant,accounting for 90.48%(76 events).The trend surface analysis showed lower incidence of varicella public health emergency events in the west of Nanjing City and higher in the east,and lower in the north and higher in the south.The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was a positive spatial correlation in varicella public health emergency events in 2017 and 2019,indicating spatial clustering(P<0.05).The hot spots were Jiangning District,Gaochun District,Yuhuatai District and Jianye Dis⁃trict.Conclusion The incidence of varicella public health emergency events in Nanjing City from 2017 to 2022 has spatial aggregation,with a concentration in suburban areas such as Jiangning District and Gaochun District.

关 键 词：水痘 突发公共卫生事件 空间聚集性 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]