基于概率性时序生产模拟的光储网协调规划  

Coordinated Planning for Photovoltaic,Energy Storage and Distribution Network Based on Probabilistic Time Series Production Simulation

作　　者：商经锐 刘建飞 李贵良 唐立军 赵静 SHANG Jingrui;LIU Jianfei;LI Guiliang;TANG Lijun;ZHAO Jing(Dehong Power Supply Bureau,Yunnan Power Grid Co.,Ltd,Dehong 678400,China)

机构地区：[1]云南电网有限责任公司德宏供电局,德宏678400

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2024年第2期67-78,共12页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

基　　金：云南电网有限责任公司科技项目(YNKJXM20220134)。

摘　　要：针对传统规划方法难以实现不确定性资源与负荷特性的时序匹配问题,提出基于概率性时序生产模拟的光储网协调规划方法。首先,考虑负荷与分布式光伏出力的不确定性建立概率性时序序列模型,利用生产模拟求取配电系统年运行概率状态;其次,综合考虑光储网的投资与运行损耗、停电损失、弃光损失及向上级电网的购电成本,建立基于随机优化的协调规划模型,通过投资决策与运行模拟迭代寻优获得最优规划方案;最后,以某个20节点的实际算例验证了所提方法的有效性。Aimed at the problem that the traditional planning methods are difficult to realize timing matching between uncertain resources and load characteristics,a coordinated planning method for photovoltaic(PV),energy storage and distribution network based on probabilistic time series production simulation is proposed.First,a probabilistic time se⁃ries model is established by taking into account the uncertainties in load and distributed PV output,and the production simulation technology is used to calculate the annual operation probability state of the distribution system.Second,a co⁃ordinated planning model based on stochastic optimization is established with the comprehensive consideration of the in⁃vestment in PV,energy storage and distribution network,operation loss,power outage loss,PV abandonment loss,and power purchase cost from the superior power grid.Through the iterative optimization of investment decision and opera⁃tion simulation,the optimal planning scheme is obtained.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by an actual 20-node example.

关 键 词：概率性时序序列 生产模拟 协调规划 源荷不确定性 负荷尖峰特性 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]