新疆农村固定资产投资对农牧民增收的影响分析  

Analysis of the Impact of Rural Fixed Assets Investment on the Income of Farmers and Herdsmen in Xinjiang

作　　者：马永仁[1] 王娇 Ma Yongren;Wang Jiao(Institute of Livestock Economy and Information,Xinjiang Academy of Animal Science,Urumqi 830000,China;School of Economics and Trade,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆畜牧科学院畜牧业经济与信息研究所,乌鲁木齐830000 [2]新疆农业大学经济管理学院,乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《经济研究导刊》2024年第4期18-22,共5页Economic Research Guide

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金资助项目“乡村振兴战略下南疆四地州畜牧产业发展模式的治理机制研究”(2022D01A43)。

摘　　要：新常态下观察农民收入的一个重要视角就是农民收入与国民经济的联系是否日趋紧密,因此必须把农业置于宏观经济背景下进行分析。农村固定资产投资是农村经济发展的重要引擎,与农村居民生活水平密切相关。由此,基于新疆1997—2020年的数据,采用VAR模型计量理论与方法,对新疆农村固定资产投资与农村居民收入水平的动态效应关系进行了实证分析。研究表明,农村固定资产投资与农村居民收入水平之间存在单方向上的格兰杰因果关系,并且协整模型反映出农村固定资产投资与农村居民收入水平存在长期均衡关系,农村固定资产投资每增加1%,将拉动农民收入水平提升54.79%。最后,通过方差分析得出,农村固定资产投资对农村居民收入水平的冲击贡献率水平很高,稳定在43%左右的水平上。An important perspective for observing farmers’income under the new normal is whether the connection between farmers’income and the national economy is becoming increasingly close.Therefore,agriculture must be analyzed in the macroeconomic context.Rural fixed assets investment is an important engine for rural economic development,which is closely related to the living standards of rural residents.Therefore,based on the data of Xinjiang from 1997 to 2020,this paper uses VAR model measurement theory and method to empirically analyze the dynamic effect relationship between rural fixed assets investment and rural residents’income level in Xinjiang.The research shows that there is a one-way Granger causality between rural fixed assets investment and rural residents’income level,and the cointegration model reflects that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between rural fixed assets investment and rural residents’income level.Every 1%increase in rural fixed assets investment will boost farmers’income level by 54.79%.Finally,through variance analysis,the impact contribution rate of rural fixed assets investment to the income level of rural residents is very high,stable at about 43%.

关 键 词：农村 固定资产投资 农牧民增收 VAR模型 新疆 

分 类 号：F127.45[经济管理—世界经济]