2024年中国能源经济指数研究与预测  

Research and Prospect of China Energy Economic Index in 2024

作　　者：唐葆君[1] 王崇州 许沛昀 吴郧 邹颖 TANG Baojun;WANG Chongzhou;XU Peiyun;WU Yun;ZOU Ying(Beijing Research Base for Sustainable Economic and Social Development,Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Economy and Environmental Management,Energy and Environmental Policy Research Center,School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学、管理与经济学院、能源与环境政策研究中心、能源经济与环境管理北京重点实验室、北京经济社会可持续发展研究基地,北京100081

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第2期28-35,共8页Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家电网公司总部科技项目(5200-202356490A-3-2-ZN)。

摘　　要：国际局势风险增加,气候变化影响持续,中国能源经济发展受到多重外部因素干扰,能源安全保障形势复杂。为更好地应对能源行业转型发展的挑战与机遇,建立了三层次六维度能源经济指数体系,对包括15个能源子行业在内的中国能源经济发展现状进行监测。在此基础上,考虑地缘政治风险、“双碳”行动推进以及气候变化波动三个关键外部因素的不确定性影响,结合情景设计和基于粒子群优化算法的长短时记忆模型,对中国能源经济的未来发展进行预测。结果表明,2024年能源经济将成为宏观经济持续回升向好的强心剂,未来发展形势积极乐观。碳减排工作对能源经济的良性发展与风险抗性具有积极影响,能够在一定程度上抵消国际风险和气候风险的负面影响,应当积极推进碳减排工作的落实。高创新行业与保供行业处于优势地位,可优先投资,维持稳定性和提升自主性是能源行业发展主旋律。At present,the domestic economy has entered a new stage of development after the epidemic prevention and control has turned smoothly.The international situation is increasingly more complicated and climate impact continues,so it is necessary to construct a scientific and reasonable index,and comprehensively consider the trend changes in different scenarios of the index under the influence of external factors to describe the changes in energy economy.In this study,a three-level six-dimensional energy economic index system including 15 energy subindustries was established,and the external factors influencing scenarios were set with reference to authoritative publications.The short-term and long-term memory models based on particle swarm optimization algorithm were introduced to carry out scenario prediction,and the development status and future trends of energy economy in China were predicted.The results show that in 2024,the energy economy will become a booster for the sustained recovery of the macro economy,and the future development will be positive and optimistic.Carbon emission reduction has a positive impact on the benign development of energy economy and risk resistance,and can offset the negative impact of international risks and climate risks to a certain extent,so the implementation of carbon emission reduction should be actively promoted.High-innovation industry and power supply industry are in an advantageous position,so giving priority to investment,maintaining stability and enhancing autonomy are the main melody melody melody of energy industry development.

关 键 词：能源经济 指数体系 外部因素影响 情景预测 碳减排工作 高创新行业 保供行业 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]