考虑恐慌免疫的情绪传播模型研究  

An Emotion Propagation Mode Study Considering Panic Immune

作　　者：关文玲[1] 王子建 马玲 GUAN Wenling;WANG Zijian;MA Ling(College of Environmental Science and Safety Engineering,Tianjin University of Technology,Tianjin 300384,China)

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学环境科学与安全工程学院,天津300384

出　　处：《安全》2024年第3期6-13,共8页Safety & Security

摘　　要：为探究应急疏散时行人心理的影响因素,引入免疫人群概念构建恐慌心理传播系统动力学模型,建立行人心理状态与影响因素的动态关系,并采用问卷调查法确定恐慌影响参数的值;基于天津某商业场所的问卷调查,计算得到恐慌参数值,利用Anylogic软件模拟疏散过程。研究结果表明:紧急事件发生时冷静人群占主要部分,随着疏散的进行,冷静人群的数量迅速减少,易感者、携带者和感染者数量先增多后减少,恐慌免疫者和持续恐慌人群出现并逐渐增多,最终趋于稳定;与环境因素相比,个人内因对疏散期间心理状态转变的影响更大;积极因素的影响使人员恐慌程度降低,导致恐慌免疫者增多。研究结论对理解恐慌传播机制、通过改进措施阻止恐慌蔓延具有重要意义,对应急疏散预案的制定具有参考价值。In order to explore the factors influencing the psychology of pedestrians during emergency evacuations,the concept of immune crowd was introduced to modify the System Dynamics model of panic propagation.The dynamic relationship between pedestrians psychological state and influencing factors was established.The values of panic influencing parameters were determined by questionnaire survey method.Based on a questionnaire survey conducted in a commercial venue in Tianjin,the panic parameter values were calculated and the evacuation process was simulated using Anylogic software.The results showed that the number of calm pedestrians accounted for the major part when the emergency occurred and decreased rapidly as the evacuation proceeded.The number of susceptible,exposed,and infected pedestrians initially increased and then decreased.The number of panic-immune and persistently panic pedestrians gradually increased,and eventually stabilized.Personal responses to emergencies had a greater impact on psychological changes during evacuation than environmental factors.The influence of positive factors led to a decrease in panic,resulting in an increase in panic-immune pedestrians.The results have important implications for understanding mechanism of panic propagation and stopping panic through improved measures,which have reference significance for development of emergency evacuation plan.

关 键 词：应急疏散 恐慌心理 系统动力学模型 恐慌免疫者 心理状态转变 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]