A method to predict rockburst using temporal trend test and its application  

作　　者：Yarong Xue Zhenlei Li Dazhao Song Xueqiu He Honglei Wang Chao Zhou Jianqiang Chen Aleksei Sobolev 

机构地区：[1]School of Civil and Resources Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing,100083,China [2]Zhong-an Academy of Safety Engineering,Beijing,100083,China [3]China Energy Group Xinjiang Energy Co.,Ltd,Urumqi,830027,China [4]Khabarovsk Federal Research Center of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences(KhFRC FEB RAS),51 Turgenev Street,Khabarovsk,680000,Russia

出　　处：《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》2024年第3期909-923,共15页岩石力学与岩土工程学报（英文版）

基　　金：The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52011530037 and 51904019);the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities and the Youth Teacher International Exchange&Growth Program(Grant No.QNXM20210004).We also greatly appreciate the assistance provided by Kuangou coal mine,China Energy Group Xinjiang Energy Co.,Ltd.

摘　　要：Rockbursts have become a significant hazard in underground mining,underscoring the need for a robust early warning model to ensure safety management.This study presents a novel approach for rockburst prediction,integrating the Mann-Kendall trend test(MKT)and multi-indices fusion to enable real-time and quantitative assessment of rockburst hazards.The methodology employed in this study involves the development of a comprehensive precursory index library for rockbursts.The MKT is then applied to analyze the real-time trend of each index,with adherence to rockburst characterization laws serving as the warning criterion.By employing a confusion matrix,the warning effectiveness of each index is assessed,enabling index preference determination.Ultimately,the integrated rockburst hazard index Q is derived through data fusion.The results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves a warning effectiveness of 0.563 for Q,surpassing the performance of any individual index.Moreover,the model’s adaptability and scalability are enhanced through periodic updates driven by actual field monitoring data,making it suitable for complex underground working environments.By providing an efficient and accurate basis for decision-making,the proposed model holds great potential for the prevention and control of rockbursts.It offers a valuable tool for enhancing safety measures in underground mining operations.

关 键 词：ROCKBURST MICROSEISMICITY Early warning Mann-Kendall trend test Confusion matrix Multi-indices fusion 

分 类 号：TU45[建筑科学—岩土工程]