数值型财政规则的国际演变及对我国的启示  

The International Evolution of Numerical Fiscal Rules and Its Enlightenment for China

作　　者：崔竹 Cui Zhu

机构地区：[1]审计署审计科研所

出　　处：《财政科学》2024年第1期99-109,共11页Fiscal Science

基　　金：国家社科基金面上项目“新形势下大数据审计能力的结构、测度和提升路径”(项目编号:20BJY033);审计署重点科研课题“政府投资基金管理及其审计研究”(项目编号:23SJ02001)。

摘　　要：数值型财政规则是约束政府财政行为的数值指标。当前世界各国主要设置负债率、赤字率等指标以加强财政约束、防范债务风险、提高财政政策可持续性。从国际演变历程看,数值型财政规则以2008年为界大致分为两个阶段。从演变规律看,数值型财政规则不是债务危机预警指标,而是控制政府赤字和债务增长、防范政府债务对经济增长负面影响的重要政策依据,要实现简单性、灵活性和可操作性的统一。我国主要采取以债务限额管理为核心的程序性财政规则,存在债务约束统计口径不全、灵活性不足等局限。建议健全适应我国国情的中期财政规则,设置财政支出限额约束指标和免责条款,加强数值型财政规则信息公开和社会监督。Numerical fiscal rules are numerical rules that constrain the government's financial behavior.At present,countries in the world mainly set debt ratio and deficit-to-GDP ratio indicators to strengthen fiscal constraints,promote debt risk prevention,and improve the sustainability of fiscal policies.From the perspective of international evolution,the numerical fiscal rules are roughly divided into two stages,marked by 2008.From the perspective of the evolution law,numerical fiscal rules are not early warning indicator of debt crisis,but important policy basis to control government deficit and debt growth and prevent the negative impact of government debt on economic growth.It is necessary to achieve the unity of simplicity,flexibility and operability.Chi na mainly adopts the debt limit management as the core of the procedural financial restraint rules,which have limitations such as incomplete statistical caliber of debt constraints and insufficient flexibility.It is suggested to establish the medium-term fiscal restraint mechanism that is suitable for China's national conditions,set fiscal expenditure limit constraint index and disclaimer clause,and strengthen the information disclosure and social supervision of numerical fiscal rules.

关 键 词：数值型财政规则 债务风险 国际演变 财政可持续 

分 类 号：F810.2[经济管理—财政学] F811.2