基于DPSIR和GM(1,1)模型的土地生态安全评价与预测——以河南省洛阳市为例  

Evaluation and prediction of land ecological security based on DPSIR and GM(1,1)model:Taking Luoyang City,Henan Province as an example

作　　者：张瑶 李帅 王鹏飞[1] ZHANG Yao;LI Shuai;WANG Peng-fei(College of Landscape Architecture and Art,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450002,China)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学风景园林与艺术学院,郑州450002

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2024年第2期162-169,共8页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：河南省科学技术攻关项目(112102110027)。

摘　　要：为探究洛阳市土地生态安全现状及主要影响因子,基于DPSIR模型,选取24个评价指标,构建评价指标体系。运用熵权法、障碍度模型(ODM)和灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对2010—2020年洛阳市土地生态安全状况进行评价与预测。结果表明,2010—2020年洛阳市土地生态安全呈上升趋势,2010—2017年波动幅度较小,2018年土地生态安全指数大幅增加,从0.4805增加至0.6027;2020年土地生态安全等级从临界安全等级上升至较安全等级,其中人口自然增长率、单位耕地农药消耗、人均公园绿地面积、第三产业产值比重等指标因素是指数上涨的重要动力;权重最大的子系统为响应子系统,权重最大的单一指标为人均公园绿地面积;障碍因素中出现频次最高的指标为生活垃圾无害化处理率;从灰色系统GM(1,1)模型的预测结果来看,洛阳市土地生态安全等级将在2023年达到安全等级。In order to explore the current situation and main influencing factors of land ecological security in Luoyang City,based on the DPSIR model,24 evaluation indicators were selected to construct an evaluation indicator system.The entropy weight method,obstacle degree model(ODM),and grey system GM(1,1)model were used to evaluate and predict the land ecological security situation in Luoyang City from 2010 to 2020.The results showed that the land ecological security in Luoyang City showed an upward trend from 2010 to 2020,with relatively small fluctuations from 2010 to 2017.In 2018,the land ecological security index increased significantly,from 0.4805 to 0.6027;in 2020,the level of land ecological security increased from a critical safety level to a relatively safe level,with factors such as natural population growth rate,pesticide consumption per unit of arable land,per capita park green space area,and the proportion of tertiary industry output being important driving forces for the index’s increase;the subsystem with the highest weight was the response subsystem,and the single indicator with the highest weight was the per capita park green space area;the indicator with the highest frequency of occurrence among obstacle factors was the harmless treatment rate of household waste;according to the prediction results of the grey system GM(1,1)model,the land ecological security level in Luoyang City would reach the safety level in 2023.

关 键 词：土地生态安全指数 DPSIR模型 灰色系统GM(1 1)模型 障碍度模型(ODM) 河南省洛阳市 

分 类 号：S159.2[农业科学—土壤学]