长江中上游流域过去千年极端洪涝事件重建与分析  

Reconstruction and Analysis of Extreme Flooding Events of the Upper and Middle Yangtze River Basins Over the Last Millennium

作　　者：杨巨佳 覃军[1] 李骁锐 陈存昕 YANG Ju-jia;QIN Jun;LI Xiao-rui;CHEN Cun-xin(Department of Atmospheric Science,School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2024年第1期201-213,共13页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFA0605603)。

摘　　要：以长江中上游流域为主要研究区域,根据历史文献资料、洪水题刻和现代水位数据重建该流域过去千年极端洪涝年,分析不同时期洪涝事件发生的规律和差异,主要结论如下:(1)用历史文献和题刻重建得到截止到建国前的45个洪涝年,平均18 a发生一次,洪涝发生的年际分布不均;(2)现代器测水位数据对重建的洪涝年延长至2002年,补充了1954、1981和1998年3个年份,得到了一份1153~2002年长江中上游流域完整的洪涝年表;(3)对洪涝事件发生频率和气候背景分析发现,近千年来长江中上流域洪涝灾害的发生频率具有一定的波动性,且近两百年来有不断增加的趋势。洪涝年的发生频次和发生机理在不同时期有所不同:中世纪暖期和小冰期主要是由于二者气候差异造成的冷暖、季风和降雨带的不同,现代暖期则主要是受到了人类活动的影响,洪水事件发生频率和强度有增无减。Taking the upper and middle Yangtze River basins as the main study area,we reconstructed the extreme flood events over the past millennium,based on literature,flood inscriptions,and modern water level data.We analyzed the patterns and differences in the occurrence of flooding events during different periods.The following significant conclusions were reached:(1)Extreme flood events for 45 years were reconstructed up to the country's founding.The average occurrence frequency was 18a,with an uneven inter-annual distribution;(2)the reconstructed flood years were extended to 2002 using modern observed water level data.A complete flood chronology were obtained from 1153 to 2002,where the years 1954,1981,and 1998 were added;(3)according to the analysis of flood frequency and climate conditions,the frequency of floods in the study area over the past millennium was variable,with an increasing trend over the last two centuries.The frequency and driving mechanism of the flood years varied among periods.The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were characterized by the differences in cooling and warming,monsoons,and rainfall zones resulting from climatic variability.In contrast,human activities primarily influenced the Modern Warm Period,and the frequency and intensity of flooding events generally increased with time.

关 键 词：长江中上游 历史记录重建 极端洪涝 气候变化 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]