中国对RCEP成员国的林产品出口效率以及潜力预测研究  

The export efficiency and potential capacity of China's forest products to RCEP member countries

作　　者：潘磊 熊立春[1,3] 姚瑜晨 梁昭 朱臻[1,3] PAN Lei;XIONG Lichun;YAO Yuchen;LIANG Zhao;ZHU Zhen(School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Hangzhou 311300;Farmland Construction Center of Songyang County of Zhejiang Province,Songyang 323400,China;Research Academy for Rural Revitalization of Zhejiang,Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Hangzhou 311300,China;Cultural Tourism Development Center of Xiangxi Town,Songyang County,Songyang 323400,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学经济管理学院,浙江杭州311300 [2]浙江省松阳县农田建设中心,浙江松阳323400 [3]浙江农林大学浙江省乡村振兴研究院,浙江杭州311300 [4]浙江省松阳县象溪镇文化旅游发展中心,浙江松阳323400

出　　处：《南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第1期237-247,共11页Journal of Nanjing Forestry University：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72003179);2023年度浙江省哲学社会科学领军人才培育课题(23QNYC13ZD);浙江农林大学青年英才培养项目(2034100003)。

摘　　要：【目的】分析中国对区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)成员国的林产品出口效率和潜力,有效判断中国对其他RCEP成员国的林产品出口贸易可拓展空间,进而推动中国林产品出口市场和结构优化。【方法】基于2004—2018年中国对RCEP成员国的林产品出口数据,运用随机前沿引力模型分析了中国对RCEP成员国的林产品出口效率,结合关税政策对出口潜力进行预测。【结果】贸易壁垒、交通水平以及经济政策等导致了中国各类林产品出口效率的下降;随着RCEP自贸区的建立,RCEP国家将进一步占据中国林产品的出口市场,有助于拓展中国对发展中国家的林产品出口。【结论】RCEP自贸区使得中国林产品的出口结构进一步调整和优化。应针对主要林产品设计差异化政策促进RCEP国家间贸易壁垒的降低,进一步推进与RCEP各国的林产品减税谈判,依托自主创新能力来提升林产品中纸和纸制品的国际竞争力及附加值。【Objective】To discuss China's export efficiency and potential capacity of forest products to Regional Comprehensive Econoroic Partnership(RCEP)member countries,it is important to identify the future expansion of China's forest product exports to other RCEP member countries and to optimize the export market and structure of China's forest products.【Method】Based on China's forest product export data to RCEP member countries from 2004 to 2018,the stochastic frontier gravity model was used to analyze China's forest product export efficiency to RCEP member countries and forecast the potential export capacity combined with tariff reduction scenarios.【Result】Trade barriers,transportation and economic policies have negative impacts on the export efficiency of forest products in China.With the establishment of RCEP,RCEP countries will further occupy the export market of China's forest products,which will help expand China's export of forest products to developing countries.【Conclusion】RCEP will further adjust and optimize the export structure of forest products in China.Differentiated policies should be designed for forest products to accelerate the reduction of trade barriers among RCEP countries,advance negotiations with RCEP countries on forest product tariff reduction,and enhance the competitiveness and added value of paper products by improving innovation capabilities.

关 键 词：区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP) 出口效率 出口潜力 出口结构 关税减让 林产品贸易 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]