中国极端天气气候研究——“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目简介及最新进展  

Research on weather and climate extremes over China:brief introduction and recent progress of the National Key R&D Program of China for Earth System and Global Change

作　　者：陈海山[1,2] 张耀存[3] 张文君[1,2] 尹志聪[1,2] 华文剑 况雪源[3] 陈国森[1,2] 马红云 韩婷婷[1,2] CHEN Haishan;ZHANG Yaocun;ZHANG Wenjun;YIN Zhicong;HUA Wenjian;KUANG Xueyuan;CHEN Guosen;MA Hongyun;HAN Tingting(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估省部共建协同创新中心,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210044 [3]南京大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2024年第1期23-45,共23页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF0801600)。

摘　　要：全球变暖背景下,极端天气气候事件频发,并表现出群发性、持续性、复合性等特点,不可预测性增加;持续性强降水、极端低温、复合型极端高温干旱、群发性热浪和台风等极端天气气候事件对我国经济社会和可持续发展影响巨大。然而,上述极端天气气候事件的新特征、关键过程和机理尚不完全清楚,重大极端事件的预报预测水平亟待提升。文章首先简要介绍“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目“中国极端天气气候事件的形成机理及其预测和归因”的基本情况。项目拟在分析全球变化背景下对我国造成重大影响的极端天气气候事件新特征的基础上,深入研究多尺度海-陆-气耦合过程影响极端天气气候事件的机理,挖掘极端天气气候事件次季节-季节预测的前兆信号;发展动力与物理统计相结合的极端事件预测新方法,研制针对中国极端事件的新一代高分辨率数值预报与检测归因系统。文章重点总结了自2022年12月项目立项至今取得的最新研究成果和进展。Under the background of global warming,extreme weather and climate events may be unprecedented when they occur with increased frequency,evident temporal and spatial clustering(concurrence),stronger persistence and new combinations(compound).This increases the difficulty of predicting extreme events.Extreme weather and climate events,such as persistent heavy rainfall,extreme low temperature,extreme high temperature and drought compound events,heat waves and strong typhoon,have produced a significant influence on economic,social and sustainable development.However,new features of extreme weather and climate events,coupled with associated key processes and relevant mechanism,remain unclear,and the prediction of extreme weather and climate events needs further improvement.This paper first gives a brief introduction of the National Key R&D Program of China for Earth System and Global Change;supported by this program,the new features of extreme weather and climate events causing serious influence over China under changing climate are investigated.Next,the paper explores the physical mechanisms of ocean-land-atmosphere coupling processes that affect extreme weather and climate events,and attempts to seek the precursors for sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions of extreme events.This program aims to develop a new statistical-dynamical combined prediction method of extreme events and establish a new generation of high-resolution numerical prediction in China,along with a detection and attribution system of extreme events.This paper also highlights recent main achievements of this program.

关 键 词：极端天气气候事件 海气相互作用 陆面过程 海陆气耦合 机理 预测 归因 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]