三维地质建模为地震数值预测带来的机遇  

OPPORTUNITIES BROUGHT BY 3D GEOSCIENCE MODELING FOR EARTHQUAKE NUMERICAL FORECASTING

作　　者：姚琪 鲁人齐[2] 苏鹏[2] 王辉[1] 朱亚玲 王力维 YAO Qi;LU Ren-qi;SU Peng;WANG Hui;ZHU Ya-ling;WANG Li-wei(Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036,China;Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036 [2]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《地震地质》2024年第1期1-18,共18页Seismology and Geology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000605);地震科学联合基金(U2039207);国家自然科学基金(42274131)共同资助。

摘　　要：地震预测预报亟需从经验性预测向数值预测转变,但是建模难的问题制约了地震数值预测的发展和行业应用。三维地质建模技术的发展及其在地震行业的应用,为地震数值预测带来了解决模型问题的机遇。文中从地震数值预测的概念、发展历程和现状入手,简述了地震数值预测目前存在的难点。随后简述了三维地质建模技术的发展和在地震行业的应用,以及国内外三维公共断层模型的构建和应用情况。结合以上2部分内容,对如何利用三维地质建模技术解决地震数值预测中的难点问题进行了展望,包括多源多精度异构数据的联合建模、地质模型-属性模型-数值模型一体化建模、平直断层结构建模、三维断层结构建模、数据-模型-计算的迭代与相互驱动等。最后简述了三维地质建模在地震数值预测应用中的难点。三维地质建模技术有望为地震数值预测及相关数值计算领域提供更逼近现实的数值模型和几何模型,可缩短建模工期,实现快速更新迭代,从而解决建模难的问题。Earthquake prediction and forecasting need to transform from the traditional empirical,qualitative,and semi-quantitative to quantitative.The improvement also calls for multi-disciplinary,highly integrated physical and mechanical simulations rather than only a single discipline.The global development of observation technology and the construction of observation networks have already built a data foundation for earthquake numerical prediction and forecasting to a certain extent.However,the biggest constraint is the difficulty of synthesizing a large amount of observation data and quickly establishing complex numerical models with geological significance for numerical calculation.It is a vital issue restricting experimental research and industry development of earthquake numerical prediction and forecasting.Based on a brief introduction of the concept,development,and research status of earthquake numerical prediction and forecasting,this paper analyzes the difficulties in numerical modeling,which essentially come from the disciplinary differences between active tectonics,structural geology,solid earth,seismology,and numerical simulations.The development of 3D Geoscience Modeling and its application in the earthquake industry can establish a large-scale complex earthquake tectonic model close to the real world with geological significance.It provides a significant opportunity and technical means for developing earthquake numerical prediction and forecasting by solving the problems in numerical modeling.3D geological modeling has built a bridge for multi-disciplinary geological applications.It can multi-disciplinary data fusion,establish a 3D geological model with geological significance and characteristics in line with geomechanical characteristics,and integrate data,geological model,up to building a numerical model,which advances the efficiency of modeling and simulation.Therefore,the rapid development of 3D geological modeling provides an opportunity to solve the modeling difficulties mentioned above in earthquake

关 键 词：三维地质建模 地震数值预测 三维公共断层模型 数值模拟 

分 类 号：P315.2[天文地球—地震学]