突发公共卫生事件网络谣言网格化预警模型研究  

Study on the Grid-based Early Warning Model for Online Rumors of Public Health Emergencies

作　　者：张桂蓉[1,2] 董志香 夏霆 ZHANG Gui-rong;DONG Zhi-xiang;XIA Ting(Risk Research and Evaluation Center for Social Stability,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China;School of Public Administration,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China;Graduate School,Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C(Chinese Academy of Governance),Beijing 100091,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学社会稳定风险研究评估中心,湖南长沙410075 [2]中南大学公共管理学院,湖南长沙410075 [3]中共中央党校(国家行政学院)研究生院,北京100091

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2024年第2期298-306,共9页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20&ZD160);中南大学前沿交叉专项基金项目(160260005)。

摘　　要：为提高现阶段网络谣言预警效率和可靠性,建立突发公共卫生事件网络谣言网格化预警模型。首先,量化网络谣言基础特征,运用灰色加权关联度分析法,纵向识别网络谣言对受众个体的迷惑性程度;其次,基于不完全信息动态博弈,结合仿真,横向预测网络谣言在受众群体中的流传广度;最后,综合纵横两个维度的评估结果,界定网络谣言的整体社会影响力,依据该模型预警网络谣言等级,提出网络谣言分级应急管控策略。以“双黄连可预防新型冠状病毒”的网络谣言为例,验证网络谣言网格化预警模型及其扼止策略的有效性,可为公共部门分级分步管控网络谣言提供信息支撑和决策支持。In order to improve the problem of low efficiency and insufficient reliability of online rumors early warning,a grid-based early warning model for online rumors of public health emergencies is established.Firstly,the depth of confusion of online rumors to individual audience is identified longitudinally by quantifying the basic characteristics of online rumors based on the grey-weighted correlation analysis.Secondly,the spread of online rumors to audience groups is predicted horizontally combined the dynamic game of incomplete information with simulation.Finally,the assessment results of both vertical and horizontal dimensions are integrated to define the overall social influence of online rumors,and a visual blue,yellow,orange and red early warning classification is carried out,and four emergency management and control strategies of delay,suppression,hedging and choking are correspondingly proposed.This paper takes the case of"Shuanghuanglian"as an example to verify the effectiveness of the online rumors grid-based early warning model and its choke tactics.In terms of theoretical research value,it is the first time that the dual perspectives of"identification-warning"and"dissemination-warning"were combined to predict the early-warning level of the overall social influence of online rumors.Based on the interaction between information and audience,this paper estimates the information vagueness of online rumor more comprehensively,and considers both the individual cognitive judgment of the audience and the game psychology of the audience group in the evaluation of the spread of online rumors.At the same time,the whole process of this study relies on big data,artificial intelligence and other automatic technologies to improve the objectivity of the evaluation of social influence of online rumors.On the basis of visualizing the four-level warning(blue,yellow,orange and red)of the overall social influence of online rumors,four emergency management and control strategies are proposed respectively,it promoted the study

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 网络谣言 预警模型 灰色加权关联度 不完全信息动态博弈 

分 类 号：G202[文化科学—传播学]