拜登政府核政策评析  

Analysis on the Biden Administration’s Nuclear Policy

作　　者：黄忠[1,2] Huang Zhong

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学区域国别研究院 [2]阐释学研究院

出　　处：《国家安全研究》2024年第1期128-148,162,共22页China security studies

基　　金：2020年度国家社科基金《近年来美国全球软遏制战略变化与中国对策研究》(项目编号20BGJ058)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：拜登政府自上台以来,其核政策继续注重核武器在国家安全中的首要地位,更为强调中俄两国核武器的挑战;继续将定制核威慑和延伸威慑相结合,创新核武器与常规力量相统合的一体化威慑方法;继续推动核武器现代化步伐,同时重新推动核军控与核不扩散进程。但拜登政府的核政策存在一系列难以克服的内在问题,如展现强烈战略进攻性姿态且威胁对手国家核心利益,定制核威慑、延伸威慑与一体化威慑困难重重,以及核军控防扩散的努力与谋求绝对核优势尖锐对立等。迄今,拜登政府的核政策未达到预期目标,美国的核武库不仅未能有效预防或控制常规战争,而且后者正面临着恶化甚至升级为核对抗的危险。拜登政府针对主要国家的核军控与核不扩散政策濒临失败,国际核秩序因之正面临严峻挑战,全球核安全之路也将更加艰难。Since taking office,the Biden administration has adopted a nuclear policy continuing to emphasize the primary role of nuclear weapons in terms of national security,placing greater stress on the challenges from the Chinese and Russian nuclear arsenals;continuing to combine tailored nuclear deterrence with extended deterrence,innovating an integrated approach that covers nuclear weapons and conventional forces;and continuing to press for the modernization of nuclear weapons,while renewing efforts for nuclear arms control and nonproliferation.However,the Biden administration faces insurmountable inherent challenges advancing its nuclear policy.For example,it has great difficulties in threatening the core interests of rival countries through a strong,strategically aggressive posture,as well as in exercising tailored nuclear,extended,and integrated deterrence.Furthermore,there is a sharp conflict between its nonproliferation efforts and pursuit of absolute nuclear superiority.So far,the Biden administration’s nuclear policy has fallen short of desired objectives,and the US nuclear arsenal has failed to effectively prevent or contain conventional wars,which are facing the danger of deteriorating or even escalating into nuclear confrontations.The Biden administration’s policy aimed at nuclear arms control and nonproliferation among the world’s major countries is on the verge of failure,posing serious challenges to the international nuclear order.As a result,the road to global nuclear security will be even bumpier.

关 键 词：拜登政府 核政策 核威慑 核军控 核不扩散 

分 类 号：D771.2[政治法律—政治学] D815.2[政治法律—中外政治制度]