共同富裕视域下遗产税制度设计研究——基于蒙特卡洛模拟的测算  

Research on Inheritance Tax System Design From the Perspective of Common Prosperity:Caculation Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

作　　者：黄凤羽 霍诗尧 张圆 HUANG Feng-yu;HUO Shi-yao;ZHANG Yuan(School of Economics,Tianjin University of Commerce,Tianjin 300134,China)

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学经济学院,天津300134

出　　处：《财经问题研究》2024年第3期55-66,共12页Research On Financial and Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“高质量发展视域下的中国直接税间接税体系改革研究”(21BJY076)。

摘　　要：遗产税作为直接税体系的组成部分,可以有效调节社会收入和财富分配,设计合理的遗产税制度方案对推进共同富裕具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文基于2019年中国家庭金融调查数据,利用蒙特卡洛模型模拟了10年间的遗产继承,以及不同遗产税方案设计对财富基尼系数的影响。研究结果显示,从长期来看,遗产税可以有效缩小贫富差距,且征税时间越长,效果越明显。在共同富裕目标下,中国遗产税免征额不应低于400万元,采用超额累进税率、提高税率标准和细化税率级次也有助于降低财富基尼系数。同时,遗产税制度设计还要统筹考虑保护实体经济和中等收入群体等问题,充分思索其对促进第三次分配的作用。As an important component of the direct tax system,inheritance tax has a good regulatory function on the wealth of social members,which can effectively suppress the accelerated accumulation of wealth brought by intergenerational inheritance and narrow the wealth gap between residents.With the large⁃scale inheritance of wealth among high⁃net⁃worth families in China,common prosperity and social equity will face new challenges.Therefore,timely and reasonable research on the design of inheritance tax system in the new era is conducive to accelerating the reform of China’s income distribution system and promoting the achievement of the goal of common prosperity.Based on summarizing the theory and practice of inheritance tax in typical countries,as well as the relevant development process of inheritance tax in China,this article explores whether and how to levy inheritance tax,points out the theoretical logic of tax policies improving income distribution,clarifies the positive impact of inheritance tax on narrowing the wealth gap among residents,and explores the design of elements of the inheritance tax system in terms of the tax system model selection,exemption amount setting and tax rate design.Based on the 2019 China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)data,this article uses a Monte Carlo model to simulate the dynamic changes in inheritance and income distribution of Chinese residents over a decade.The impact of different tax system designs on wealth redistribution is quantitatively examined,including the exemption level,tax rate form,tax rate level,and tax rate level of inheritance tax.This article finds that levying inheritance tax can effectively reduce the wealth gap among residents in the long term,and the effect becomes increasingly apparent over time;the current exemption amount for inheritance tax in China should not be less than CNY 4 million;compared to proportional tax rates,progressive tax rates have a better regulatory effect,and the highest marginal tax rate can be set at around 50%;and raising or re

关 键 词：共同富裕 遗产税 财富基尼系数 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：F812.2[经济管理—财政学]