基于气象条件的上海悬铃木白粉病预报模型  

Forecasting model of Platanus powdery mildew disease in Shanghai based on meteorological conditions

作　　者：郑庆锋[1] 史军 涂广平 朱春刚 李军[1] 徐卫忠[1] ZHENG Qingfeng;SHI Jun;TU Guangping;ZHU Chungang;LI Jun;XU Weizhong(Key Laboratory of Cities Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai,Shanghai Climate Center,Shanghai 200030,China;Shanghai Ecological Forecasting and Remote Sensing Center,Shanghai 200030,China;Shanghai Green Guidance Station,Shanghai 200025,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市气候中心上海城市气候变化应对重点开放实验室,上海200030 [2]上海市生态气象和卫星遥感中心,上海200030 [3]上海市绿化管理指导站,上海200025

出　　处：《上海农业学报》2024年第1期71-76,共6页Acta Agriculturae Shanghai

基　　金：中国气象局上海城市气候变化应对重点开放实验室开放基金课题“气候变化对上海生态系统影响评估”;上海市科技计划项目“基于遥感的生态环境监测预警研究——以长三角一体化示范区为例”(20232410100)。

摘　　要：白粉病是上海市悬铃木主要病害,气温和湿度是影响悬铃木白粉病发生发展的主要环境因子。本文基于上海市区2014—2020年悬铃木白粉病病情指数及同期气象资料(气温、相对湿度等),应用数理统计方法分析悬铃木白粉病病情指数与气象条件的关系,建立气象预报模型,为防控悬铃木白粉病提供依据。结果显示:悬铃木白粉病病情指数和6日滑动平均气温、最低相对湿度成正相关,相关系数分别为0.36和0.29(P<0.01);年内6日滑动平均气温首次≥19.2℃时,悬铃木白粉病开始发生;建立的悬铃木白粉病病情指数气象预报模型拟合效果为R2=0.96,RMSE=2.542,独立样本检验效果为R2=0.97,RMSE=1.661,模型效果较好,可用于白粉病气象预报服务。Powdery mildew is the main disease of Platanus in Shanghai.Temperature and humidity are the main environmental factors for the occurrence and development of powdery mildew.In order to provide the basis for the prevention and control of Platanus disease,the relationship between powdery mildew disease index and meteorological conditions was analyzed by mathematical statistics method based on Platanus powdery mildew disease index and meteorological data(temperature,relative humidity,etc.)of the same period in Shanghai urban area from 2014 to 2020,and a meteorological forecast model was established.The results indicated that the disease index of powdery mildew was positively correlated with 6-day moving average temperature and minimum relative humidity,with correlation coefficients of 0.36 and 0.29 respectively(P<0.01).When the 6-day moving average temperature was greater than or equal to 19.2℃for the first time,the powdery mildew began to occur in Shanghai urban area.The meteorological forecasting model of powdery mildew disease index established in this paper had good effects and could be used for daily services,with the fitting effect R2=0.96,RMSE=2.542,and the independent sample test effect R2=0.97 and RMSE=1.661.

关 键 词：悬铃木 白粉病病情指数 气象条件 预报模型 

分 类 号：S763.105[农业科学—森林保护学]