数字服务贸易自由化与中外价值链关联——来自“一带一路”沿线国家面板数据的经验证据  

Liberalization of Digital Service Trade and Its Correlation with Domestic and Foreign Value Chains——Empirical Evidence from Panel Data of Countries Along the "the Belt and Road"

作　　者：宋思源[1] 刘玉奇[2] Song Si-yuan;Liu Yu-qi

机构地区：[1]商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院 [2]北京物资学院

出　　处：《经济学家》2024年第3期56-65,共10页Economist

基　　金：北京市教委社科计划一般项目“北京市流通空间问题研究”(SM201610037007)。

摘　　要：文章以2012—2021年“一带一路”沿线45个国家或地区为样本,借助静态面板OLS模型、动态面板系统SGMM模型,考察数字服务贸易自由化对中外价值链关联的影响以及传导机制。结果显示,数字服务贸易自由化可深化中外价值链关联;出口技术复杂度、金融开放、人力资本积累与产业集聚的正向效应是数字服务贸易自由化推动中外价值链关联的关键传导路径。进一步研究得出,数字服务贸易自由化对中外价值链关联的影响具有非线性特征,具体呈倒“U”型“;一带”与“一路”国家或地区数字服务贸易自由化对中外价值链关联的作用差异不明显;中国数字服务贸易自由化亦可强化中外价值链关联。据此,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家应积极搭建数字服务贸易网络、加速人力资本积累、对接国际高标准数字贸易规则,为深化价值链关联提供外部保障。Taking 45 countries or regions along the "the Belt and Road" from 2012 to 2021 as samples, this paper uses the static panel OLS model and the dynamic panel system SGMM model to examine the impact of digital service trade liberalization on Sino-foreign value chain correlation and its transmission mechanism. The results show that digital service trade liberalization can deepen the Sino-foreign value chain correlation. The positive effects of export technical complexity, financial opening, human capital accumulation and industrial agglomeration are the key transmission paths for digital service trade liberalization to strengthen the Sino-foreign value chain correlation. Further research shows that the impact of digital service trade liberalization on the Sino-foreign value chain correlation has a non-linear characteristic, specifically presenting an inverted "U" shape. The difference in the impact of digital service trade liberalization between countries or regions along the "Overland Silk Road Economic Belt" and "Maritime Silk Road Economic Belt" on the Sino-foreign value chain correlation is not significant. China's liberalization of digital service trade can also strengthen the Sino-foreign value chain correlation. Therefore, China and countries along the "the Belt and Road" should actively build a digital service trade network, accelerate the accumulation of human capital, connect with international high standard digital trade rules, and provide external guarantee for deepening the value chain connection.

关 键 词：中外价值链关联 数字服务贸易自由化 人力资本积累 出口技术复杂度 “一带一路”沿线国家 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]