气候因子和人类活动对松辽流域植被叶面积指数动态的影响  

Influences of climate factors and human activities on vegetation leaf area index dynamics in the Songliao River Basin

作　　者：马云飞 何全军[4] 张月维 石艳军[4] 李建平[1,2,3] 袁福香 MA Yunfei;HE Quanjun;ZHANG Yuewei;SHI Yanjun;LI Jianping;YUAN Fuxiang(Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin Province,Changchun 130062,China;Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Changbai Mountain Meteorology&Climate Change,Changchun 130062,China;Agricultural Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment and Prevention Technology Innovation Center of Jilin Province,Changchun 130062,China;Guangzhou Meteorological Satellite Ground Station,Guangzhou 510640,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林省气象科学研究所,长春130062 [2]长白山气象与气候变化吉林省重点实验室,长春130062 [3]吉林省农业气象灾害风险评估与防控科技创新中心,长春130062 [4]广州气象卫星地面站,广州510640

出　　处：《生态学报》2024年第5期2043-2056,共14页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：吉林省科技发展项目(20210203152SF);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J076)。

摘　　要：了解气候变化和人类活动对植被的影响对陆地生态系统可持续发展具有重要意义。基于月尺度MODIS LAI、气象等数据,采用基于像元的趋势及偏相关分析、时滞与累积效应分析和改进的残差分析等方法,评估松辽流域2001—2021年生长季植被叶面积指数(LAI)动态,在顾及时滞与累积效应的情况下探究气候与人为驱动因素对植被的影响。结果表明:(1)松辽流域LAI总体呈“平原低,山地高”的空间分布格局。近21年植被LAI在波动中呈上升趋势,未来植被变化以持续改善为主,但内蒙古西部草原及大、小兴安岭局部地区仍存在退化风险。(2)LAI总体上与气温、降水呈正相关,相较气温植被生长对降水更敏感。LAI变化的时间效应随气候因子、覆被类型及植被分区的不同而发生变化。LAI对气温的主要时间效应为2个月滞后和0—1个月累积,而对降水主要为无显著滞后和1个月累积。(3)气候变化和人类活动的联合作用是影响松辽流域植被LAI动态的主要原因,两者对植被变化的贡献分别占41.7%和58.3%,同时考虑时滞和累积效应时,提升了气候因子对植被生长的解释度。Understanding the impact of climate change and human activities on vegetation is of great significance to the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems.Based on monthly MODIS leaf area index and meteorological data,the trend and partial correlation analysis,time⁃lag and cumulative effects analysis,and the improved residual analysis were used to evaluate the LAI dynamics of vegetation in the growing season of Songliao River Basin from 2001 to 2021,explore the impact of climate and human drivers on vegetation under the premise of taking time⁃lag and cumulative effects into account.The results showed that:(1)the overall distribution pattern of LAI in Songliao River Basin was low in plain and high in mountain area.In the past 21 years,the vegetation LAI showed an upward trend in fluctuations,and the future vegetation change trend will be mainly continuous improvement,but there is still a risk of degradation in the grasslands of western Inner Mongolia and some areas of Daxing′an Mountains and Xiaoxing′an Mountains.(2)Vegetation LAI was positively correlated with precipitation,and vegetation growth was more sensitive to precipitation than air temperature.The time effects of the LAI change varied with climate factors,land cover types and vegetation zoning.The main time effects of LAI on air temperature were 2 month lag and 0—1 month accumulation,while for precipitation,there was no significant lag and 1 month accumulation.(3)The combined effects of climate change and human activities were the main reasons that affected the dynamics of vegetation LAI in Songliao River Basin,and their contributions to vegetation change accounted for 41.7%and 58.3%,respectively.When considering time⁃lag and cumulative effects at the same time,the explanation degree of climate factor to vegetation growth was improved.

关 键 词：气候因子 松辽流域 时滞累积效应 人类活动 残差分析 

分 类 号：S51[农业科学—作物学]