扩大进口与全球价值链——基于非对称性进口贸易成本的量化分析  

China's Import Expansion and Global Value Chains——A General Equilibrium Analysis of Asymmetric Trade Costs

作　　者：范子杰[1] 钟道诚 彭思仪 FAN Zijie;ZHONG Daocheng;PENG Siyi(Hunan University,Changsha,China;Renmin University of China,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,410006 [2]中国人民大学应用经济学院,100872

出　　处：《经济学动态》2023年第12期92-108,共17页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于生产网络结构一般均衡模型的中国扩大进口经济效应评估及政策优化研究”(72173039);国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球价值链背景下中美新型大国贸易关系与贸易利益研究”(18ZDA068)。

摘　　要：扩大进口是“以高水平开放推动高质量发展”的重要抓手。本文从非对称性进口贸易成本削减视角出发,量化分析扩大进口对全球价值链的影响。文章通过区分中间品和最终品贸易份额和支出,将服务业拓展为可贸易行业,构建了一个包含全球价值链特征的可量化一般均衡分析模型,在此基础上量化分析了2000—2014年不同用途产品非对称性进口贸易成本削减对中国全球价值链参与度和位置的影响。结果表明:(1)中国加入WTO削减非对称性进口贸易成本使得中国更深层次融入全球价值链,GVC前向参与度与后向参与度指数分别提升了53.7%与197.3%,这个变化主要是由于制造业中间品进口贸易成本削减导致的;(2)仅削减进口贸易成本会使中国更趋近于全球价值链下游,整体位置指数下降了14%,主要原因在于进口中间品激增导致中国前向生产长度指数中的国内生产长度减少,但中国前向生产长度指数的GVC生产长度却是提高的;(3)相对发达国家而言,中国的平均进口贸易成本仍然较高,将中国非对称性进口贸易成本进一步削减至发达国家平均水平,会使中国GVC前向参与度和后向参与度分别提高155.6%和176.5%。本文对理解扩大进口战略的影响和政策措施具有重要意义。This article constructs a multi-country,multi-sector general equilibrium model of heterogeneous enterprises,examines the trade effects and changes in the position of global value chains brought by trade costs reduction policies.By distinguishing the trade shares and expenditures of intermediate and final products,the mechanism by which trade cost reduction in different industries affects the trade and position of global value chains through production network linkages is identified.The results show that:(1)The trade costs reduction of China's accession to the WTO significantly improves its GVC forward participation and backward participation;(2)The trade costs reduction decreases China's GVC position index,which is mainly due to the reduction of domestic production length in China's forward production length index due to the surge in imports of intermediate goods;(3)China's trade costs are still relatively high,and there is still great potential for further expansion of imports in the future.Further expansion of imports will also benefit China and the world.

关 键 词：扩大进口 全球价值链 非对称性贸易成本 反事实模拟 一般均衡分析 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易] F113[经济管理—产业经济]