2020—2050年我国水泥行业二氧化碳排放特征及减排潜力研究  

Characteristics and reduction potential of carbon dioxide emission in China’scement industry from 2020 to 2050

作　　者：朱书涵 陆一磊 王松伟 刘弯弯 汤克勤 李楠[1] ZHU Shuhan;LU Yilei;WANG Songwei;LIU Wanwan;TANG Keqin;LI Nan(Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044;Nanjing Meteorological Bureau,Nanjing 210019)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,南京210044 [2]南京市气象局,南京210019

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2024年第2期453-463,共11页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(No.2019YFA0606804);江苏省自然科学基金项目(No.BK20220031)。

摘　　要：水泥行业是二氧化碳(CO_(2))排放的主要行业,其排放量占全球CO_(2)总排放量的7%.随着城市化发展,我国已成为近20年来全球最大的水泥生产国.为开展我国水泥行业CO_(2)减排研究,本文运用Gompertz模型和下游需求预测法对2020-2050年我国水泥需求量进行预测,建立高、低需求情景;然后基于LEAP模型,预测2020—2050年不同需求和不同减排技术下的CO_(2)排放的变化趋势,并明确不同控制技术对CO_(2)减排的定量贡献.结果表明,在高需求情景下,我国水泥需求量将在2030年达峰,达峰值为2488×10^(6)t;而在低需求情景下,水泥需求量已于2023年达峰,达峰值为2370×10^(6)t.节能改造、燃料替代、降低熟料含量、CCS技术对水泥行业CO_(2)减排均有显著贡献,其中,短期主要依靠节能改造和燃料替代,有助于减少化石燃料相关的CO_(2)排放量,2020—2030年累计减排贡献分别为25%和34%;在2030年后,CCS技术进步是CO_(2)排放下降的首要原因,贡献可达39%,降低熟料含量也可以有效地减少工艺过程相关排放,累计减排贡献为28%.本研究综合评估了水泥行业不同减排措施的潜力,指出单一的减排技术不能完成水泥行业的深度减排任务,未来应采取多维度减污降碳的技术路线,以实现水泥行业碳达峰和碳中和目标.The cement industry is a major contributor to carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions,accounting for 7%of total global CO_(2) emissions.With rapid urbanization,China has become the largest cement producer in the past two decades.In order to carry out research on CO_(2) emission reduction in China's cement industry,this paper applies the Gompertz model and downstream demand forecasting method to forecast China's cement demand from 2020 to 2050 and establishes scenarios for high and low demand.Subsequently,based on the LEAP model,the study forecasts the trends of CO_(2) emissions under different demands and various emission reduction technologies from 2020 to 2050,and quantifies the contribution of different control technologies to CO_(2) emission reduction.The results indicate that under the high demand scenario,China's cement demand will peak in 2030,reaching a peak of 2488×10^(6) t,whereas under the low demand scenario,cement demand already peaked in 2023 at 2370×10^(6) t.Energy-saving renovations,fuel substitution,reduction of clinker content and CCS technologies all significantly contribute to CO_(2) emission reduction in the cement industry.In the short term,the emphasis is on energy-saving renovations and fuel substitution,helping reduce CO_(2) emissions related to fossil fuels,with cumulative reduction contributions of 25%and 34%from 2020 to 2030 respectively.After 2030,advancements in CCS technology become the primary reason for CO_(2) emission reduction,contributing up to 39%,and reducing clinker content can also effectively reduce process-related emissions,contributing a cumulative reduction of 28%.This study evaluates the potential of different emission reduction measures in the cement industry,highlighting that a single emission reduction technology cannot achieve deep emission reductions,and in the future,a multi-dimensional approach to pollution control and carbon reduction should be adopted to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in the cement industry.

关 键 词：水泥行业 二氧化碳 未来情景 LEAP 

分 类 号：X820[环境科学与工程—环境工程]