基于供需适配性理论的Y产品供需适配预警模型构建研究  

Construction of a Supply and Demand Adaptation Early Warning Model for Y Products Based on the Theory of Supply and Demand Adaptability

作　　者：李款 张满姣 Li Kuan;Zhang Manjiao(Tobacco Monopoly Bureau in Guanshanhu District,Guiyang City,Guiyang 550081,Guizhou,China;School of Economics and Management,Anshun University,Anshun 561000,Guizhou,China)

机构地区：[1]贵阳市观山湖区烟草专卖局,贵阳贵州550081 [2]安顺学院经济与管理学院,安顺贵州561000

出　　处：《绿色科技》2024年第3期240-244,共5页Journal of Green Science and Technology

基　　金：贵州省烟草公司贵阳分公司科技项目(编号:2022-06)。

摘　　要：Y产品供需适配预警是烟草专卖市场的一种信息反馈机制,对改善Y制品供需适配效果具有重要意义。根据沙琳的供需适配性理论,构建Y产品供给与需求的适配性评价体系,应用层次分析法,结合专家经验,对评估因子赋权重,建立Y产品供需适配预警模型。以贵阳市G区为例进行实证分析,以营销数据、零售商POI布局数据和调查问卷为输入,进行预警分析,预警模型输出的相关性、可及性、质量性和相适性的指标与期望值的偏差均在5%以内,输出的警度为低,预测结果与实际情况一致,表明该预警模型具有一定的参考价值。Y product supply and demand adaptation warning is an information feedback mechanism in the tobacco monopoly market,which is of great significance for improving the supply and demand adaptation effect of Y products.Based on the theory of supply and demand adaptation,a suitability evaluation system for Y product supply and demand is constructed.The Analytic Hierarchy Process is applied,combined with expert experience,to assign weights to the evaluation factors and establish a Y product supply and demand adaptation warning model.Taking G District of Guiyang City as an example,empirical analysis was conducted using marketing data,retail POI layout data,and survey questionnaires as inputs for early warning analysis.The deviation was all within 5%,and the output warning level was low.The predicted results were consistent with the actual situation,indicating that the early warning model has certain reference value.

关 键 词：供需适配 适配性 预警模型 

分 类 号：F721[经济管理—产业经济]