金融业对外开放风险防范的政策选择——基于“三元悖论”新解释视角  

Research on the Choices of the Policy after"RMB Internationalization"Modified the Framework of"Trilemma"——From the Perspective of Financial Risk Prevention

作　　者：杨荣海 王红蕾 Yang Ronghai;Wang Honglei

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学金融学院 [2]云南财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2024年第2期1-16,共16页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金后期重点项目“‘去美元化’、人民币国际化与数字人民币发展研究”(21FJLA003);国家社会科学基金“‘十四五’时期扩大金融业对外开放的风险及防范研究”(21XJY010)的资助。

摘　　要：本文在厘清人民币国际化对货币政策独立性、汇率稳定性与资本自由流动影响的理论逻辑上,形成了“三元悖论”新解释框架,并基于金融风险防范视角展开政策选择研究。首先,人民币国际化意味着保持我国货币政策独立性需要在全球范围内来讨论,而人民币汇率稳定更多则由在岸市场和离岸市场间差异来决定。其次,“十四五”时期我国进入了“三元悖论”新的阶段,从风险防范的政策选择组合来看,情况更为复杂。再次,从“三元悖论”政策选择两个的线性组合来看,只有修正后的货币政策独立性与资本账户开放组合有利于降低股票市场风险。但加入国际储备后,修正后的货币政策独立性与汇率稳定性组合有利于降低宏观经济、货币风险;修正后的货币政策独立性与资本账户开放组合有利于降低总体金融风险、宏观经济及金融机构风险;修正汇率稳定性与资本账户开放组合有利于降低宏观经济、金融机构风险。最后,“三元悖论”新解释政策选择为一个政策、或是一半与一半政策线性组合时,只能降低股票市场风险。但加入国际储备后,有利于降低宏观经济风险与货币风险。This article clarifies the influence of RMB internationalization on monetary policy independence,exchange rate stability and free capital flow in the theoretical logic.On this basis,this article further uses the framework of "trilemma" modified by "RMB internationalization" to study the choices of the policy from the perspective of financial risk prevention.The conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the internationalization of RMB means that maintaining the independence of monetary policy in China needs to be discussed on a global scale,and the stability of RMB exchange rate is more determined by differences between onshore and offshore markets.Secondly,China is still in the stage of "trilemma" at present,and the situation is more complicated from the perspective of choosing combinations of policies to prevent risks.Thirdly,only the combination between the modified independence of monetary policy and capital account opening is conducive to reducing the risk of the stock market,from the various situations of choosing the linear combinations of two policies among the three policies.But after adding the international reserves to the model,the results of the choices of policy have the following changes:the combination between the modified independence of monetary policy and exchange rate stability is conducive to reducing the risks of macroeconomic and monetary market;the combination between the modified independence of monetary policy and capital account opening is conducive to reducing the risks of overall finance,macroeconomic and financial institution;the combination between the exchange rate stability and capital account opening is conducive to reducing the risks of macroeconomic and financial institution.Finally,choosing the linear combinations of one,half and the other half of the policy among the three policies,they can only reduce the risk of stock market.But after adding the international reserves to the model,these linear combinations is conducive to reducing the risks of macroeconomic and monetary market.

关 键 词：人民币国际化 三元悖论 金融风险防范 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]