信息级联效应下考虑前排“热评”现象的短视频舆情演化研究  

Study on the Evolution of Short Video Public Opinion Considering the Phenomenon of"Hot Comment"in the Front Row under the Information Cascade Effect

作　　者：郭馨元 祁凯[1] Guo Xinyuan;Qi Kai(School of Economics and Management,Harbin Normal University,Harbin Heilongjiang 150025)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨师范大学经济与管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150025

出　　处：《情报探索》2024年第2期48-55,共8页Information Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“重大突发公共卫生事件网络社群情绪感染路径及导控机制研究”(项目编号:21YJC630106)成果之一。

摘　　要：【目的/意义】短视频的运营模式使得网民对舆情事件的讨论逐渐趋于单条作品内部评论区,因此前排“热评”信息时效性失效时,在信息级联的加持下会干扰舆情事态的演化趋势。基于此探究舆情演化过程及影响,为短视频舆情治理提供理论依据。【方法/过程】对传统SIR模型改进,增设信息级联影响下的传播路径,考虑事件发展过程中出现的转机,将其区分为事件的正向及负向转机,分别构建相应情境下的模拟动态仿真以探索舆情演化规律。【结果/结论】过时前排“热评”导致的信息级联传播路径会对舆情演化造成负面影响。相较于正向转机,信息级联对于舆情事件负向转机的影响更为显著,并且前排“热评”账号影响力越强,对舆情事件的影响程度越显著。[Purpose/significance]The operation mode of short video makes netizens'discussion of public opinion events gradually converge to the internal comment section of a single work,therefore,when the timeliness of the front-row"hot comment"information fails,it will interfere with the evolution trend of public opinion events under the support of information cascade.Based on this,the paper explores the evolution process and influence of public opinion,and provides a theoretical basis for short video public opinion governance.[Methods/processes]The study improves traditional SIR model by adding the propagation paths under the influence of information cascade.Considering the turning points in the process of event development,it divides them into the positive and negative turning points of the event,and constructs the simulations dynamic simulation in the corresponding situation to explore the evolution law of public opinion.[Results/conclusions]The cascading path of information dissemination caused by outdated front-row"hot comment"negatively affects the evolution of public opinion.Compared with positive turn,the influence cascade has a more significant impact on the negative turn of public opinion events,and the stronger the influence of the front-ranked"hot comment"account,the more significant the influence on public opinion events.

关 键 词：信息级联 短视频舆情 改进SIR模型 舆情演化 

分 类 号：G20[文化科学—传播学]