800 km客运班线事故特征及情景研究  

Study on Accident Characteristics and Scenarios of Long-distance Passenger Line over 800 km

作　　者：刘畅[1] 夏鸿文[1,2] 孟兴凯 王雪然[1] 吴初娜 LIU Chang;XIA Hong-wen;MENG Xing-kai;WANG Xue-ran;WU Chu-na(Automotive Transportation Research Center,Research Institute of Highway,Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100088,China;Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100091,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部公路科学研究院汽车运输研究中心,北京100088 [2]北京交通大学,北京100091

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2024年第1期160-168,共9页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：交通运输战略规划政策项目(2021/8/6);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2021-9091b)。

摘　　要：为降低800 km以上客运班线事故潜在发生性,提高企业安全防控能力,研究分析了800 km以上客运班线事故典型特征,构建事故发生重要情景。基于2014—2020年800 km以上客运班线道路交通事故数据展开致因分析及事故易发情景研究。以人、路、环境为依据,选取关键特征构建了事故特征指标体系。利用决策树模型构建了安全风险模型,探索了运行时段、人因、天气状况、季度、事故发生地区、道路线形、路面状况、节假日情况、春运情况、公路技术等级和公路行政等系统关键因子与翻车、刮擦、碰撞、撞击固定物、追尾、坠车等事故形态间的潜在关系。剖析了事故发生时交通系统内人、路及环境等因素特征及形态,以此构建了800 km以上客运班线的事故易发情景。结果表明:运行时段、人因、天气状况是影响800 km以上客运班线事故发生的关键因子,且与季度、事故发生地区、道路线形、路面状况等因子存在多重耦合关系;节假日情况、春运情况、公路技术等级和公路行政等级不是影响800 km以上客运班线事故发生的关键因子。研究为降低800 km以上客运班线的事故潜在发生性及企业安全防控提供理论依据。未来,道路运输管理部门与道路运输企业应强化安全管理,规范驾驶员安全驾驶行为,普及事故易发情景下的防御性驾驶知识。In order to reduce the accident potential of long-distance passenger line over 800 km and improve the ability of enterprise safety prevention and control.The typical characteristics of the accident on the passenger line over 800 km are studied and analyzed,and the important scenarios of the accident are constructed as well.Based on the data of road traffic accidents on the passenger lines over 800 km from 2014 to 2020,the cause analysis and accident-prone scenarios are studied.Based on people,roads and environment,the key features are selected to construct the accident characteristic indicator system.The security risk model is constructed by using decision tree model,the potential relationship between the key factors of the system(such as running time,human factors,weather conditions,seasons,accident areas,road alignment,road surface conditions,holidays,spring festival transportation,highway technical grade,highway administration,etc.)and the accident patterns(such as overturn,scratch,collision,collision with fixed object,rear-end collision,vehicle falling,etc.)is explored.The characteristics and forms of human,road and environment factors in the traffic system are dissected when the accident occurs,and then the accident-prone situation of the passenger line over 800 km is constructed.The result shows that(1)the running time,human factors and weather conditions are the key factors affecting the accident of passenger line over 800 km,and there are multiple coupling relations with season,accident area,road alignment,road surface condition and so on;(2)holiday,Spring Festival transportation,highway technical grade and highway administrative grade are not the key factors affecting the accident of passenger line over 800 km.The study provides a theoretical basis for reducing the accident potential of the passenger line over 800 km and for the safety prevention and control of enterprises.In the future,road transport management departments and road transport enterprises should strengthen safety management,standardize th

关 键 词：交通安全 事故特征情景 决策树模型 800 km以上客运班线 事故致因分析 

分 类 号：U49[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]