江湖洪水遭遇下鄱阳湖水动力模拟  

Hydrodynamic Simulation of Poyang Lake Flood underYangtze River Flood Encountering

作　　者：张广明 王志超 吴龙华[2] 吴秋琴 黄志文 邓书盼 ZHANG Guang-ming;WANG Zhi-chao;WU Long-hua;WU Qiu-qin;HUANG Zhi-wen;DENG Shu-pan(Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering,Nanchang 330029,Jiangxi Province,China;Institute of Water Conservancy and HydroPower,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省水利科学院,江西南昌330029 [2]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2024年第3期69-77,共9页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3201804,2022YFC3202603);江西省水利科技计划项目(202124ZDKT02);长江水利委员会长江科学院开放基金(CKWV2021865/KY);江西省科技厅重大科技研发专项“揭榜挂帅”制项目(20213AAG01012);江西省重点研发计划项目(20203BBGL73224,20203BBGL73221)。

摘　　要：鄱阳湖接纳流域内来水,其洪水的形成和发展受鄱阳湖流域来水和长江洪水的双重影响,造成该地区在特定时段极易引发特大洪水。文章分析了江湖作用机制,并基于1959-2009年汉口和湖口洪水资料,统计分析了江湖洪水遭遇及长江洪水倒灌入湖频次;通过构建鄱阳湖-长江干流二维水动力模型,对江湖顶托加剧情景、江湖顶托相持情景、长江洪水倒灌情景等典型洪水过程进行了重演与分析,将模拟结果与实测水位过程进行验证与误差分析,并应用该模型对1998年极端洪水遭遇过程进行模拟分析。研究结果表明:鄱阳湖洪水一般早于长江洪水出现,两者遭遇主要在6-7月;长江倒灌情景一般发生在长江主汛期,通过统计分析长江洪水的倒灌天数及倒灌水量,反映了江湖顶托强度在年代际尺度上处于此消彼长的波动状态;模型对江湖洪水遭遇典型水位过程与1998年极端洪水遭遇过程的模拟预测精度较高,效果较好,说明模型能够很好地处理鄱阳湖洪水与长江洪水遭遇的高动态变化问题,可为鄱阳湖地区的经济建设和防洪治理提供理论支撑。.Poyang Lake receives incoming water from the basin,and its flood formation and development are influenced by both incoming water from Poyang Lake basin and Yangtze River flood.This makes the area extremely vulnerable to severe flooding at a certain time of the year.Based on the flood data of Hankou and Hukou from 1959 to 2009,this paper analyzes the flood occurrence of Yangtze River and Poyang Lake and the frequency of Yangtze River flood inpouring into Poyang Lake.By constructing a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Poyang Lake and Yangtze River mainstream,this paper reviews and analyzes typical flood processes such as the intensification scenario of Yangtze River and Poyang Lake overburden,the equilibrium scenario of Yangtze River and Poyang Lake overburden,and the extreme scenario of Yangtze River flood flowing backwards into Poyang Lake overburden.The simulation results are verified and errors are analyzed with the measured water level process,and the extreme flood encounter process in 1998 is simulated and analyzed with this model.The results show that the flood of Poyang Lake generally occurs earlier than the flood of Yangtze River,and the two floods mainly occur in June to July.The backflow of Yangtze River flood into Poyang Lake generally occurs in the main flood season of Yangtze River.Through statistical analysis of the number of days and water volumn of backflow,it shows that the intensity of Yangtze River and Poyang Lake overburden fluctuates in interdecadal scale.The model has high accuracy and good effect in simulating and predicting the typical water level process of the flood encounter of Yangtze River and Poyang Lake and the extreme flood in 1998,indicating that the model can well deal with the highly dynamic changes of Poyang Lake flood and Yangtze River flood,and can provide theoretical support for the economic construction and flood control in Poyang Lake Region.

关 键 词：鄱阳湖 长江 洪水遭遇 洪水频率 顶托作用 水动力模型 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]