贸易政策不确定性是否倒逼中国企业创新  

Is Trade Policy Uncertainty Pushing Chinese Enterprises to Innovate

作　　者：郎昆 李新成 LANG Kun;LI Xincheng

机构地区：[1]清华大学马克思主义学院 [2]清华大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2024年第1期87-104,共18页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“当代资本主义的本质特征、重大问题和影响研究”(22&ZD054);中国博士后科学基金面上项目“国家安全视角下的供应链安全水平评估与对策研究”(2023M742025)。

摘　　要：近年来,受地缘政治冲突等因素影响,全球贸易政策不确定性显著上升,深刻影响着企业的创新行为。本文使用2000—2022年A股非金融类上市公司数据,从企业自主创新战略和研发投入两个维度衡量企业创新,实证分析了贸易政策不确定性对中国企业创新的影响。结果表明:一方面,贸易政策不确定性会显著提高企业采取自主创新战略的概率,且对于市值规模较大、研发投入水平较高、盈利能力较强、市场估值较低以及杠杆率较低的企业,这种提高效果更为显著;另一方面,在中美贸易摩擦后,高新技术企业研发投入的增加显著高于非高新技术企业,且研发基础更好、融资约束更小、高管团队有研发工作背景的高新技术企业,研发投入增长更明显。In recent years,under the background of geopolitical conflicts,trade policy uncertainty has increased significantly,which has profoundly affected the innovative behavior of enterprises.This article uses the data of Chinese A-share non-financial listed companies from 2000 to 2022,and empirically tests the impact of trade policy uncertainty on Chinese corporate innovation,which measured by enterprise independent innovation strategy and R&D investment.The results show that,on the one hand,trade policy uncertainty significantly increases the probability of enterprises adopting indigenous innovation strategies.This improvement effect is more pronounced for enterprises with large scale,high level of R&D investment,strong profitability,low market valuation and low leverage ratio.On the other hand,after the China-US trade friction,the increase in R&D investment of high-tech enterprises is significantly higher than that of non-high-tech enterprises.High-tech enterprises with better R&D foundation,less financing constraints,and executive team with R&D work experience are more likely to increase their R&D investment.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 自主创新 研发投入 高新技术企业 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]