Mapping Seismic Hazard for Canadian Sites Using Spatially Smoothed Seismicity Model  

作　　者：Chao Feng Han-Ping Hong 

机构地区：[1]School of Civil Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710061,China [2]School of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Harbin Institute of Technology,Shenzhen 518055,China [3]Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,University of Western Ontario,London N6A 5B9,Canada

出　　处：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》2023年第6期898-918,共21页国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：The support of the Fundamental Research Funds from the Central Universities,CHD(Grant No.300102282103);Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi(Program No.2023-JC-QN-0512);Harbin Institute of Technology(Shenzhen)。

摘　　要：The estimated seismic hazard based on the delineated seismic source model is used as the basis to assign the seismic design loads in Canadian structural design codes.An alternative for the estimation is based on a spatially smoothed source model.However,a quantification of differences in the Canadian seismic hazard maps(CanSHMs)obtained based on the delineated seismic source model and spatially smoothed model is unavailable.The quantification is valuable to identify epistemic uncertainty in the estimated seismic hazard and the degree of uncertainty in the CanSHMs.In the present study,we developed seismic source models using spatial smoothing and historical earthquake catalogue.We quantified the differences in the estimated Canadian seismic hazard by considering the delineated source model and spatially smoothed source models.For the development of the spatially smoothed seismic source models,we considered spatial kernel smoothing techniques with or without adaptive bandwidth.The results indicate that the use of the delineated seismic source model could lead to under or over-estimation of the seismic hazard as compared to those estimated based on spatially smoothed seismic source models.This suggests that an epistemic uncertainty caused by the seismic source models should be considered to map the seismic hazard.

关 键 词：Adaptive kernel smoothing Fixed kernel smoothing Ground motion model Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis Seismic hazard map Uniform hazard spectra 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]