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作 者:李宏洲 夏梓方 Li Hongzhou;Xia Zifang
机构地区:[1]对外经济贸易大学国际关系学院,北京100029
出 处:《国际论坛》2024年第1期40-65,156,157,共28页International Forum
基 金:对外经济贸易大学新进青年教师科研启动项目“新时代中国应对外部威胁的决心展示策略研究”(项目编号:22QD14)的阶段性成果。
摘 要:近年来,美国及其盟友持续提升在数字技术上的互操作性,这一趋势伴随着数字治理工具的普及而愈发显现。数字技术互操作性提升不仅体现为数字工具共享、数字技术标准趋同和数字信息跨国流动,其更深远的影响在于,平台化建设打通了国家之间的治理边界,使得各国从合作推动“数字治理”转向共享“基于数字的治理”。治理互操作性的提升将对联盟的凝聚力形态产生变革性影响,可能改变传统上主要基于外部威胁和有效制度设计的凝聚力形态,凸显基于内部兼容的联盟凝聚力形态。本文将这一过程视作联盟的内向化进程,伴随着数字化以及大模型通用化发展,联盟成员国间的国内议题相互嵌入、治理工具多国共享、治理模式走向趋同,成员国间的互动模式从传统的跨国协调模式转变为算法弥散模式。本文认为美国推动与其盟友技术互操作性的下一阶段,是实现基于国内治理互嵌的治理互操作性,进而使得美国联盟体系成员国凝聚力走向内向化进程,表现为高科技产业链重塑、情报信息实时共享、国内议题框架同质化等趋势,并在联盟内跨国战略协调、楔子战略效用、美国联盟伙伴国扩展以及国际格局阵营化等方面产生相应的战略效应。In recent years,the United States and its allies have consistently enhanced their interoperability in digital technology.This trend has grown increasingly salient with the popularization of digital governance tools.The enhanced digital technology interoperability is manifested in the shared digital tools,the harmonization of digital technology standards,and the cross-border flow of digital information.It has also had far-reaching implications:countries have shifted from co-promotion of “digital governance” to “digital-based governance” because governance boundaries have been blurred with the introduction of platform-based systems.The transformative impact of enhanced governance interoperability may serve to strengthen intra-alliance cohesion rooted in internal compatibility,possibly weakening the traditional form of cohesion,which is primarily based on external threats and effective institutional design.This article defines this process as alliance introversion where the interaction among allies shifts from traditional transnational coordination to a fully algorithm-based model as a result of digitization and the application of large,general-purpose models,the mutual embedding of domestic issues among allies,a common set of governance tools,and the convergence of governance models.It argues that the next phase in US efforts to promote technological interoperability with its allies will be to realize governance interoperability in terms of mutual embeddedness in domestic governance.This will cause an inward turn in the alliance because of increased cohesion among allies,evident in the industrial restructuring in high-technology,real-time intelligence sharing,and the homogenization of frameworks for dealing with domestic issues.This will also produce strategic effects in areas such as transnational strategic coordination within the alliance,the utility of wedge strategies,the expansion of the network of US allies and partners,and the bifurcation of the international landscape.
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