2005-2022年浙江省急性乙型病毒性肝炎发病趋势的Joinpoint回归和年龄-时期-队列模型分析  

Trends of acute viral hepatitis B incidence in Zhejiang province from 2005 to 2022 based on joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models

作　　者：罗锋 周洋[2] 苏颖 郑舒涵 严睿[2] 朱瑶 邓璇[2] 唐学雯[2] 何寒青[2] Luo Feng;Zhou Yang;Su Ying;Zheng Shuhan;Yan Rui;Zhu Yao;Deng Xuan;Tang Xuewen;He Hanqing(School of Public Health,Zhejiang Chinese Medical University,Hangzhou 310053,Zhejiang,China;Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou 310051,Zhejiang,China;Hangzhou Medical College,Hangzhou 310000,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江中医药大学公共卫生学院,浙江杭州310053 [2]浙江省疾病预防控制中心,浙江杭州310051 [3]杭州医学院,浙江杭州310000

出　　处：《中国疫苗和免疫》2024年第1期19-24,共6页Chinese Journal of Vaccines and Immunization

基　　金：中国肝炎防治基金会中国乙肝防控科研基金(YGFK20230126)。

摘　　要：目的分析2005-2022年浙江省急性乙型病毒性肝炎(乙肝)发病趋势。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集浙江省2005-2022年急性乙肝病例报告数据。运用Joinpoint回归和年龄-时期-队列(Age-period-cohort,APC)模型分析报告发病率的平均年度变化百分比(Average annual percent change,AAPC)以及年龄、时期和出生队列效应。结果2005-2022年浙江省报告急性乙肝44778例,年均报告发病率为4.76/10万。Joinpoint回归分析显示,发病率AAPC(95%CI)为-11.74%(-12.65%~-10.82%),在0-19岁的-18.61%(-19.69%~-17.52%)至≥60岁的-7.89%(-11.95%~-3.64%)之间。APC模型分析显示,发病率从0岁的33.60/10万降至1岁的11.62/10万,从15岁的3.17/10万升至20岁的6.16/10万,之后持续下降;相对危险度从2005年的2.07(1.96-2.18)降至2022年的0.28(0.26-0.31),在2020年出生队列的0.01(0.00-0.04)至1923年出生队列的1032.31(319.80-3332.26)之间;净偏移值为-11.20%(-11.50%~-10.90%),各年龄局部偏移值在-18.56%(-19.53%~-17.58%)至-3.44%(-9.06%-2.52%)之间。结论2005-2022年浙江省急性乙肝报告发病率呈下降趋势,儿童乙肝防控工作效果显著。建议加强成人乙肝防治措施。Objective To analyze trends in incidence of acute viral hepatitis B in Zhejiang province from 2005 to 2022.Methods We obtained data on acute hepatitis B cases reported during 2005-2022 from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and used joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort(APC)models to estimate average annual percent change(AAPC)of reported incidence and determine age,period,and birth cohort effects.Results A total of 44778 acute hepatitis B cases were reported in Zhejiang from 2005 to 2022,for an average annual reported incidence of 4.76 per 100000 population.Joinpoint regression showed that the AAPC(95%CI)of incidence was-11.74%(-12.65%~-10.82%),ranging from-18.61%(-19.69%~-17.52%)in 0-19-year-olds to-7.89%(-11.95%~-3.64%)in≥60-year-olds.The APC model showed that incidences per 100000 declined from 33.60 in 0-year-olds to 11.62 in 1-year-olds,increased from 3.17 in 15-year-olds to 6.16 in 20-year-olds,and then declined continuously.Relative risk decreased from 2.07(1.96-2.18)in 2005 to 0.28(0.26-0.31)in 2022 and ranged from 0.01(0.00-0.04)in births in 2020 to 1032.31(319.80-3332.26)in births in 1923;net drift was-11.20%(-11.50%~-10.90%),with local drifts in all ages ranging from-18.56%(-19.53%~-17.58%)to-3.44%(-9.06%-2.52%).Conclusions The incidence of acute hepatitis B decreased from 2005 to 2022 in Zhejiang,showing remarkable achievement in childhood hepatitis B prevention and control.We suggest strengthening hepatitis B prevention and control among adults.

关 键 词：急性乙型病毒性肝炎 发病率 Joinpoint回归模型 年龄-时期-队列模型 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]