基于BP-DEMATEL的山西省冬小麦水足迹影响因素识别  

Identification of influencing factors on water footprint of winter wheat in Shanxi Province based on BP-DEMATEL

作　　者：韩宇平[1,2] 马伏枥 贾冬冬[1,2] 黄会平[1,2] 张庚辰 苗浩东 HAN Yuping;MA Fuli;JIA Dongdong;HUANG Huiping;ZHANG Gengchen;MIAO Haodong(College of Water Resources,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450045,China;Key Laboratory of Water Resources Conservation and Intensive Utilization in the Yellow River Basin of Henan Province,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450045,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学水资源学院,河南郑州450045 [2]华北水利水电大学河南省黄河流域水资源节约集约利用重点实验室,河南郑州450045

出　　处：《水资源保护》2024年第2期9-15,共7页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(52009043);河南省软科学研究计划项目(222400410118)。

摘　　要：针对山西省冬小麦水足迹历史演变及关键影响因素识别问题,分析了1993—2021年山西省冬小麦水足迹历史演变规律,利用BP神经网络-决策实验室(BP-DEMATEL)模型对冬小麦水足迹演变的关键影响因素进行识别,将其分为驱动型因素及特征型因素,并揭示了影响因素之间的作用机制。结果表明:1993—2021年山西省冬小麦水足迹及单位水足迹均呈下降趋势;2021年山西省冬小麦总水足迹为27亿m^(3)(蓝水占比57%),单位水足迹为1 122 m^(3)/t,与前期高点相比分别下降38%(较1994年)和21%(较1993年);气温、相对湿度和灌溉面积为冬小麦水足迹演变的关键驱动型因素,化肥施用量和农业机械总动力为关键特征型因素。In response to the historical evolution of winter wheat water footprint in Shanxi Province and the identification of key influencing factors,the historical evolution law of winter wheat water footprint in Shanxi Province from 1993 to 2021 was analyzed.The key influencing factors of winter wheat water footprint evolution were identified using the BP nueural network-decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(BP-DEMATEL)model,which was divided into driving factors and characteristic factors,and the mechanism of action between the influencing factors was revealed.The results show that from 1993 to 2021,the water footprint and yield water footprint of winter wheat in Shanxi Province showed a downward trend.In 2021,the total water footprint of winter wheat in Shanxi Province was 2.7×10^(8) m^(3)(blue water accounted for 57%),with a unit water footprint of 1122 m^(3)/t.Compared to the previous high point,it has decreased by 38%(compared to 1994)and 21%(compared to 1993),respectively.Temperature,relative humidity,and irrigation area are key driving factors for the evolution of winter wheat water footprint,while fertilizer application and total power of agricultural machinery are key characteristic factors.

关 键 词：BP神经网络-决策实验室模型 水足迹 冬小麦 山西省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]