基于灰色建模技术的中国废弃物资源化利用产业发展能力测度及预测研究  

Grey Modeling Technology for Measurement and Prediction of theDevelopment Capability of Waste Utilization Industry in China

作　　者：曾波 苟小义 龚英 ZENG Bo;GOU Xiaoyi;GONG Ying(Rongzhi College,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 401320,China;College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学融智学院,重庆401320 [2]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2024年第1期108-114,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72071023);重庆教委科学技术研究重点项目(KJZD-K202202102);重庆市教委科学技术研究重大项目(KJZD-M202300801);重庆市自然科学基金项目(CSTB2023NSCQ-MSX0365,CSTB2023NSCQ-MSX0380);重庆市研究生导师团队建设项目(yds223006)。

摘　　要：废弃物资源化利用产业的迅猛发展有效减少了废弃物后续处理导致的环境污染,科学预测其发展能力对改善我国环境质量及促进相关产业深度融合具有重要价值。为此,文章首先构建了具有自适应特征的新型多变量灰色模型DWGM(1,N),该模型解决了传统GM(1,N)的机理缺陷、参数缺陷与结构缺陷,实现了对传统GM(1,N)和GM(1,1)模型的完全兼容。然后,建立了评价我国废弃物资源化利用产业发展能力的指标体系,并应用灰色关联度模型识别其影响因素。最后,应用DWGM(1,N)模型对中国废弃物资源化利用产业发展能力进行建模,结果显示DWGM(1,N)平均相对模拟误差为0.2683%,优于传统GM(1,N)和GM(1,1)(分别为17.8382%和6.7515%)。应用DWGM(1,N)对2020—2025年该产业发展能力进行预测,结果显示2025年该产业发展能力为其2013年1.5倍,表明该产业未来发展潜力良好。The rapid development of China’s economy and the increasing people’s material needs have intensified the development and utilization of natural resources,resulting in the production of more products and waste after consumption.The utilization of waste resources is the main way to solve the over-exploitation of primary resources and reduce the environmental harm caused by waste treatment,and it is also an important basis for the realization of the concept of sustainable development.Depicting the development trend of related industries is the premise of defining the scale of waste resource utilization.The environmental pollution caused by direct waste treatment is effectively reduced by the rapid development of China’s Waste Resource Utilization(WRU)industry.Therefore,it is of great value to scientifically predict its development ability to improve China’s environmental quality and promote the deep integration of related industries.This paper constructs a multivariable grey model DWGM(1,N)with adaptive characteristics,which solves the mechanism defects,parameter defects and structure defects of the traditional GM(1,N)and realizes the complete compatibility with the traditional GM(1,N)and GM(1,1)models.Firstly,based on the PEST model and the diamond model,a four-dimensional index system of industrial development ability of WRU is constructed,which is based on the demand of production resources,economic development level,technological innovation and ontology-related factors.After that,based on the grey relational model,the index is measured and screened,and the correlation threshold is set to 0.9.Then,the filtered indicators are brought into DWGM(1,N)for modeling.In order to verify the performance of the new model,this paper compares the modeling results of the new model with GM(1,N)and GM(1,1)models.The results show that the average relative simulation error of DWGM(1,N)is 0.2683%,which is much better than that of the traditional GM(1,N)and GM(1,1)models(17.8382%and 6.7515%respectively).The performance of DW

关 键 词：废弃物资源化利用 产业发展能力预测 PEST模型与波特钻石模型 DWGM(1 N) 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]