工程项目组合风险扩散模型的级联失效分析  

Cascading Failure Analysis of Engineering Project Portfolio Risk Diffusion Model

作　　者：李倩[1] 韦洁琳 刘锋涛 LI Qian;WEI Jielin;LIU Fengtao(School of Civil Engineering,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004,China;School of Civil and Architecture Engineering,Liuzhou Institute of Technology,Liuzhou 545007,China)

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学土木工程学院,湖南长沙410004 [2]柳州工学院土木建筑工程学院,广西柳州545007

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2024年第1期172-178,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2017JJ3519)。

摘　　要：为构建符合工程项目组合特点的风险扩散模型,解决风险扩散问题。本文考虑风险扩散的双关系载体—项目交互关系和风险因素逻辑关系,构建工程项目组合风险扩散的双层相依网络模型,运用级联失效理论提出风险扩散规则,通过数值仿真分析风险扩散特征。仿真结果发现:工程项目组合中,双层网络模型能够反映风险在项目和风险因素双关系载体中的扩散特征;与单层网络风险扩散模型相比,构建的模型展现出差异性的风险扩散效应,风险扩散在工程项目组合中表现出更剧烈的级联失效过程。风险扩散模型作为工程项目组合风险扩散问题的前置性研究,为进一步风险扩散网络稳定性的研究提供新思路和启发。The parallel operation of multiple projects is the norm for more and more engineering construction enterprises.The combination management of multiple projects focuses on coordinating the interactive relationships between projects,which can avoid vicious competition for resources between projects,improve resource utilization efficiency,and generate collaborative effects for enterprises.However,the interaction between projects increases the difficulty with risk management,leading to risk diffusion issues.When risk diffusion occurs,the failure phenomenon can spread between projects through interactive relationships,leading to cascading project failures and nonlinear losses.To solve the risk diffusion problem in project portfolios,this study aims to construct a risk diffusion model that conforms to the characteristics of engineering project portfolios,as a research framework for risk diffusion problems.We first consider the project interaction relationship and the logical relationship of risk factors.Based on the mutual influence and interaction effect between these two different risk diffusion relationships(project interaction relationship and risk factor logical relationship),we construct a two-layer dependent network model for engineering project portfolio risk diffusion,and analyze the complex heterogeneous relationship of engineering project portfolio risk diffusion.Secondly,the cascading failure theory is used to propose risk diffusion rules and describe the logical path of the risk diffusion process.Finally,through the numerical simulation of the risk diffusion process of the project portfolio,the characteristics of risk diffusion are analyzed to verify the effectiveness and applicability of the model.The simulation results find that:In the engineering project portfolio,the bi-layer dependent network model can reflect the diffusion characteristics of risks in the dual-relationship carrier of the projects and the risk factors;compared with the single-layer network risk diffusion model,the model shows a certain

关 键 词：工程项目组合 风险扩散模型 双层相依网络 级联失效 

分 类 号：C935[经济管理—管理学]