国际贸易供应链韧性评估与风险传导研究--基于重大突发事件冲击下的国际视角  

Research on Resilience Assessment and Risk Transmission in International Trade Supply Chains:International Perspective Based on Major Contingency Shocks

作　　者：张炜[1] 妥璟旖 王乃合 张鲁瑶[2] Zhang Wei;Tuo Jingyi;Wang Naihe;Zhang Luyao

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学经济学院,300134 [2]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《南方经济》2024年第3期56-75,共20页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金规划项目,粮食安全视域下的粮食期货价格泡沫风险研究(22YJA790048)。

摘　　要：重大突发事件频发使得国际贸易供应链安全问题成为各国政府关注的重要议题。全文基于全球重大卫生事件冲击下的国际视角,采用CoDEA模型分步评估供应链初始节点、子链和整体链条韧性,并利用社会网络分析法,进一步探究各节点经济体在风险传导中的角色与功能。结果表明:(1)此次疫情的冲击存在于国际贸易供应链的上游、中游与下游三个节点,对整体韧性的补偿作用有限且成本高昂;(2)风险传导与风险抵御能力不同步,在此次疫情冲击下,风险传导影响力较强的经济体通常不具备较强的供应链韧性,而中国较强的风险抵御能力对强化国际供应链网络韧性起到积极作用;(3)经济体因风险厌恶情绪,试图通过边缘化规避冲击,但并未产生实质性的避险效果;(4)相较于主受益板块与经纪人板块,此次风险传导关系以溢出板块为主,过多的外溢促使风险交叉迭代传播,加剧了疫情对国际贸易供应链的冲击损伤。基于此文章提出国际贸易供应链韧性提升与风险防范的政策启示。The frequent occurrence of major emergencies has made the issue of international trade supply chain security an important topic of concern for governments.Based on the international perspective under the impact of major emergencies,the full text uses the CoDEA model to evaluate the initial nodes,sub chains,and overall chain resilience of the supply chain step by step。The article uses the social network analysis method to further explore the role and function of each node economy in risk transmission.The results show that:(1)The main impact links of major emergencies are in the upstream and midstream of the international trade supply chain,and the compensation effect of downstream nodes on overall resilience is limited and costly;(2)Risk transmission and risk resistance are not synchronized.Under the impact of this pandemic,economies with strong risk transmission influence usually do not have strong supply chain resilience,while China's strong risk resilience plays a positive role in strengthening the resilience of international supply chain networks;(3)Economies have attempted to avoid shocks through marginalization due to risk aversion,but have not produced substantial risk aversion effects;(4)Compared to the main beneficiary sector and the broker sector,the risk transmission relationship this time is dominated by the spillover sector.Excessive spillovers promote the cross iterative propagation of risks,exacerbating the impact of emergencies on the international trade supply chain.Based on this,we draw policy implications for improving the resilience of international trade supply chains and preventing risks.

关 键 词：重大突发事件冲击 国际贸易供应链 韧性评估 风险传导 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易] F753[经济管理—产业经济]