基于AHP-熵-模糊理论的冀北地区输电线路雷击灾害风险研究  

Study on Thunderstroke Disaster Risk of Transmission Lines in Northern Hebei Based on AHP-entropy-fuzzy Theory

作　　者：杜维柱 张金满 沈彦伶 卢毅 于竞哲 高岩峰 DU Wei-zhu;ZHANG Jin-man;SHEN Yan-ling;LU Yi;YU Jing-zhe;GAO Yan-feng(State Grid Jibei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Research Institute,Beijing 100045 China;Hebei Provincial Meteorological Service Center,Shijiazhuang 050021 China)

机构地区：[1]国网冀北电力有限公司电力科学研究院,北京100045 [2]河北省气象服务中心,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《自动化技术与应用》2024年第3期14-18,共5页Techniques of Automation and Applications

基　　金：河北省重点研发计划项目(22375405D);2021年国网冀北电科院项目(B1018K21000B)。

摘　　要：利用2011-2020年冀北地区输电线路受灾数据,分析引发线路跳闸或停运故障的各种灾害,其中雷击灾害造成的冀北电网故障最多,占总灾害的29.2%;另外,冀北输电线路雷电灾害具有明显的地域性、月变化、年变化特征。建立输电线路雷击灾害风险评估模型:构建用于输电线路评估的指标体系,然后利用AHP层次分析法、熵权法相结合的主、客观综合评价法计算风险评估指标的组合权重,最后基于模糊理论评估电网线路雷击灾害风险。以冀北地区输电线路为例进行数值计算,研究表明:该评价方法能够解决风险评估过程中的不确定因素,降低主观影响,提高风险评估方法的准确性。Based on the disaster data of transmission lines in northern Hebei from 2011 to 2020,the disasters causing tripping or outage accidents of transmission lines are analyzed.Thunderstroke is one of the main meteorological disasters causing security accidents in northern Hebei Power Grid,which accounts for 29.2% of the total disasters.In addition,thunderstroke disaster on transmission lines have obvious regional,monthly and annual characteristics.In this paper,the analytic hierarchy process is used to establish the lightning disaster risk assessment index system of transmission line.The subjective and objective combination weighting method combining analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method is used to calculate the composite weight of risk assessment indicators,fuzzy theory is used to evaluate the thunderstroke disaster risk of transmission line.Taking the transmission line in northern Hebei as an example,the numerical calculation is carried out.The result shows that the evaluation method can solve the uncertain factors in the process of risk assessment,reduce the subjective influence and improve the accuracy of risk assessment method.

关 键 词：雷电灾害 输电线路 风险评估 组合权重 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]