基于系统动力学的运输结构调整政策模拟分析  

Simulation Analysis of Transportation Structure Adjustment Policy Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：晁攀迪 周凌云 康颖丰 刘柄全 CHAO Pandi;ZHOU Lingyun;KANG Yingfeng;LIU Bingquan(Postgraduate Department,China Academy of Railway Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Transportation&Economics Research Institute,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China;China Railway International Multimodal Transport Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100161,China)

机构地区：[1]中国铁道科学研究院研究生部,北京100081 [2]中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司运输及经济研究所,北京100081 [3]中铁国际多式联运有限公司,北京100161

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2024年第3期78-89,共12页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划课题(P2023X014);西部陆海新通道运营有限公司科研项目(22JGZC0007YJ);天津市科技计划项目(22ZLGCGX00060)。

摘　　要：近年来综合交通运输体系稳步发展,运输方式深度融合、运输结构优化调整成为研究重点。但影响运输结构因素复杂多样,因素间反馈作用较难明晰,阻碍运输结构平稳发展。运输结构调整政策模拟仿真可有效确定变量,明确各变量作用机理。系统动力学作为捕捉因素间相互作用方法,处理多重反馈情景具有突出优势。为更好研究公转铁运输结构,以重庆市运输结构调整为例构建系统动力学模型,创新结合运输结构调整、运输结构调整补助、公路治超、基础设施优化、货运枢纽建设等维度,开展政策模拟研究并分析结果。研究结果表明:加强公路治超、增加基础设施投资、提升运输结构调整补助可带动多式联运周转量和内河港口货运吞吐量增长,有效降低单位货物周转量碳排放,为制定运输结构调整策略提供决策依据。In recent years,the comprehensive transportation system has steadily developed,and the deep integration of transportation modes and the optimization and adjustment of transport structures have become research priorities.However,the factors that affect the transportation structure are complex and diverse,and the feedbacks between these factors are not always clear,hindering the stable development of the transportation structure.Simulation and analysis of transportation structure adjustment policies can effectively identify variables and clarify the mechanisms of their effects.System dynamics,as a method of capturing the interactions between factors,has outstanding advantages in dealing with multiple feedback scenarios.To better study the transportation structure of the transition from public transportation to rail transportation,a system dynamics model was constructed using the example of the transportation structure adjustment in Chongqing. The model innovatively combined dimensions such as adjustment of transportation methods, transport structure subsidies, highway overload control, infrastructure, optimize the construction of freight hubs and to conduct policy simulation research and analyzed the results. The results show that strengthening highway overload control, increasing infrastructure investment, and improving transport structure subsidies can drive the growth of multimodal transport turnover and inland port cargo throughput, effectively reducing the carbon emissions per unit freight turnover, and providing decision-making basis for formulating transport structure adjustment strategies.

关 键 词：交通运输 运输结构调整 系统动力学 政策模拟 运输方式 

分 类 号：U293.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]