基于SWOT—灰色预测的ESI学科潜力与入围模型研究  

Research on ESI discipline potential and finalist model based on SWOT-Grey Prediction

作　　者：楼晶 Lou Jing(Dongguan University of Technology,Dongguan 523106,China)

机构地区：[1]东莞理工学院图书馆,广东东莞523106

出　　处：《江苏科技信息》2024年第4期45-48,共4页Jiangsu Science and Technology Information

基　　金：东莞理工学院高等教育研究重点项目,项目名称:基于ESI数据分析的新型高水平理工科大学学科建设成效跟踪研究,项目编号:GJKY20220。

摘　　要：文章以东莞理工学院为例,运用基本科学指标数据库和InCites数据库的数据,采用学科准入率法和SWOT分析法识别出优势学科和机会学科,分别为工程学、材料科学、化学、环境生态学、计算机科学和农业科学。利用灰色预测模型对这些学科的被引频次和ESI阈值进行拟合和预测,得到了这些学科入围ESI全球前1%的时间节点。通过对比实际入围时间和预测时间,验证了该模型的可靠性和有效性。文章为高校学科建设和发展提供了一种新的方法和思路,也为高校制定或调整学科发展规划提供了有价值的参考依据。The article takes Dongguan University of Technology as an example,using data from Essentials Science Indicators database and InCites database,and using discipline admission rate method and SWOT analysis method to identify advantageous disciplines and opportunity disciplines,namely engineering,materials science,chemistry,environmental ecology,computer science,and agricultural science.Then,the Grey Prediction model was used to fit and predict the citation frequency and ESI threshold of these disciplines,and the time nodes for these disciplines to be ranked in the top 1%of ESI globally were obtained.The reliability and effectiveness of the model were verified by comparing the actual nomination time with the predicted time.This study provides a new method and approach for the construction and development of disciplines in universities,and also provides valuable reference for universities to formulate or adjust disciplinary development plans.

关 键 词：基本科学指标 时间预测 灰色预测模型 SWOT分析 

分 类 号：G250.2[文化科学—图书馆学]