Economic burden of premature deaths attributable to different heatwaves in China: A multi-site study, 2014-2019  

作　　者：Cheng ZHAO Yong-Hong LI Shilu TONG Rong WANG Yu WANG Yi-Bin CHENG Yi-Ran LYU Yu-Shu HUANG Jiang HE Jia GUO Xiao-Yuan YAO 

机构地区：[1]China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health,National Institute of Environmental Health,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100021,China [2]School of Public Health,Institute of Environment and Population Health,Anhui Medical University,Hefei 230032,China [3]School of Public Health and Social Work,Queensland University of Technology,Brisbane 4006,Australia [4]National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2023年第6期836-846,共11页气候变化研究进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Science and Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program (2017FY101201)from Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China.

摘　　要：It has been well documented that heatwaves are linked to elevated mortality and morbidity.However,the selection of optimal heatwave definitions for subsequent risk assessment has been inconsistent and there is no full picture of the effects of heatwaves with different intensities on economic losses due to mortality,which can provide important insights for public health considerations.Hence,we used a two-stage time series analysis,combined with values of statistical life(VsL)based on the value of a statistical life year to assess the economic burden of deaths associated with heatwaves of different intensities and durations and to identify the vulnerable populations and regions.We further conducted stratified analyses by age,sex,and region.We found 2.9%(95%CI:0.0%,6.5%)-20.0%(95%CI:2.9%,34.2%)of VsL were attributable to heatwaves,corresponding to attributable economic losses(AELs)of 2.20(95%CI:0.32,3.77)-4.77(95%CI:1.53,7.63)billion CNY.The economic burden of death was most sensitive to heatwave H99P_2D(99th percentile,at last 2 consecutive days),while H97.5P_2D(97.5th percentile,at last 2 consecutive days)caused the highest attributable economic losses.Females and elderly people aged≥65 years were more sensitive.The AELs in the temperate zone and northern regions were larger than those in subtropical zone and southern regions during relatively low-intensity heatwaves,respectively.By contrast,the AELs in subtropical zone and southern regions were relatively higher than those in temperate zone and northern regions during relatively high-intensity heatwaves,respectively.The AELs were larger in urban areas than in rural areas.Tailored intervention strategies,primarily focusing on vulnerable populations and regions,should be formulated to reduce the economic loss due to heatwaves in the context of climate change.

关 键 词：Heatwaves Economic burden MORTALITY Values of statistical life 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]