Do abrupt cryosphere events in High Mountain Asia indicate earlier tipping point than expected?  

作　　者：Cun-De XIAO Tong ZHANG Tao CHE Zhi-Qiang WEI Tong-Hua WU Lei HUANG Ming-Hu DING Qiao LIU Dong-Hui SHANGGUAN Fei-Teng WANG Peng-Ling WANG Jie CHEN Chun-Hai XU Xin-Wu XU Da-He QIN 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [2]State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China [3]Faculty of Arts and Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Zhuhai 519000,China [4]National Climate Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China [5]Global Change and Polar Institute,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science,Beijing 100081,China [6]Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610299,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2023年第6期873-883,共11页气候变化研究进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFF0801903);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41690145,42125604);the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (2021-TS-06,2021-KF-06,and 2022-ZD-05);the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2021NTST16);the Beijing Normal University Talent Introduction Project of China (12807-312232101);Basic Research Fund of CAMS (2023Z004).

摘　　要：Tipping points of about 16 elements have been identified in Earth system,yet cryospheric tipping point of specific Alpine region has not been studied.Here we analyzed three tipping elements(mountain glacier,snow cover,and permafrost)identified in recent years,evidenced by the facts of frequent occurrence of abrupt massive collapse of glacier mass and the widespread thermakarst of permafrost.Since 2015,strikingly abrupt cryosphere events(ACEs)have been consistently observed over a large range of High Mountain Asia(HMA).Those events were un-precedentedly significant in history,leading to collapses of glaciers following by disconnection of glacier tongue from accumulation basin and recession of thermakarst towards higher elevation.Strong decreasing of snow depth in 2022 was also observed since 2021/2022 winter,coinciding with extreme warming of the year.The widespread high warming rates in the last two decades over HMA might have triggered above ACEs.The dynamic thresholds of ACEs depend largely on high temperature,especially extreme heat wave,for both glaciers and permafrost,closely related to meltwater as a key factor for reaching initial conditions of abrupt changes,suggesting HMA cryosphere is a tipping element under the global warming level of 1.1℃.The ACEs can cause tremendous damage to local ecosystem and socioeconomy,measures to mitigate risks should be taken when the tipping points are reached.

关 键 词：Abrupt glacier change Thermakarst Snow depth Tipping point Early warning system 

分 类 号：P343.6[天文地球—水文科学]