Impacts of 1.5℃ global warming on hydrological conditions of navigation along the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage  

作　　者：Jin-Lei CHEN Shi-Chang KANG A-Dan WU Di-Di HU 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China [2]Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province,Northwest Insttute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 73000 China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2023年第6期904-912,共9页气候变化研究进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42276261);the International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (131B62KYSB20180003);Gansu Provincial Science and Technology Program (22ZD6FA005);the National Office for Philosophy and Social Sciences as part of the project titled"Strategic Competition and Cooperation in the Arctic among China,Russia,and the United States from the Perspective of Sustainable Development" (20BGJ045);the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science (SKLCS-ZZ-2023).

摘　　要：Arctic navigability is crucial to the global economy and landscape,while there is an omission in understanding how Arctic navigability changes as a function of 1.5℃ of the Paris Agreement.This study investigated the impact of 1.5℃ global warming above the preindustrial level on sea ice conditions and accessibility of the Northern Sea Route(NSR)and Northwest Passage(NWP)with the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System and new risk demarcation criteria.The Arctic is colder on the Canadian side than on the European side under 1.5℃ warming.Sea ice is mostly less than three years old,and the younger,thinner and less concentrated ice is mainly in the seas along the NSR.Ships above Polar Class(PC)6 might be unimpeded along two passages all the year.Besides,the NSR and NWP have great potential for PC6 ships in October-December,while it is only the NSR for PC7 ships.Caution is still required when navigating the western East Siberian Sea,its surrounding straits,and the Parry Channel.These changes in hydrological conditions are important for global shipping,and this work is helpful for supporting coordinated international decision-making.

关 键 词：ARCTIC Sea ice Northern sea route Northwest passage Global warming 

分 类 号：U675[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] P46[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]