Role of anthropogenic forcing and atmospheric circulation in a lowtemperature event in February 2022 in eastern China  

作　　者：Zhi-Fan CHEN Ying SUN Xuebin ZHANG Tim LI Jin-Hua YU 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [2]Climate Studies Key Laboratory,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 10008l,China [3]Climate Research Division,Environment and Climate Change Canada,Toronto M3H 5T4,Canada [4]Department of Atmospheric Sciences,University of Hawai at Manoa,Honolulu HI 96822,USA

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2023年第6期921-929,共9页气候变化研究进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42025503,U2342228);the Key Innovation Team of China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Detection and Response (CMA2022ZD03).

摘　　要：In February 2022,eastern China experienced prolonged low temperatures,with significant impacts on agriculture,transportation,and power supply.The regional average temperature anomaly for February 2022 was-0.65℃,making it the third coldest February from 2000 to 2022.Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing and atmospheric circulation on low-temperature events is important for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the region.This study used observational and model data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to conduct an extreme event attribution study.The results showed that anthropogenic forcing led to a 1.5-fold decrease in the probability of 2022-like events,with anthropogenic greenhouse gases being the primary contributors to this reduction.Conversely,aerosols slightly increased the likelihood of such events.To evaluate the role of atmospheric circulation in this event,we chose Siberian High as the key circulation system and employed circulation similarity,intensity classification,and regression methods to estimate the impacts of circulation patterns,circulation in-tensity,and human-induced circulation change.The results demonstrated that under the influence of the same anthropogenic forcing,the presence of an anomalous Siberian High and anomalously enhanced intensity of the Siberian High both increased the likelihood of such a cold event occurrence.However,anthropogenic forcing exerts a negligible effect on such cold events via anomalous circulation.

关 键 词：Low-temperature event ATTRIBUTION Intensity of the Siberian high Anthropogenic forcing Atmospheric circulation 

分 类 号：P434[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]