A representative CO_(2) emissions pathway for China toward carbon neutrality under the Paris Agreement's 2℃target  

作　　者：Da ZHANG Xiao-Dan HUANG Jun-Ting ZHONG Li-Feng GUO Si-Yue GUO De-Ying WANG Chang-Hong MIAO Xi-Liang ZHANG Xiao-Ye ZHANG 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100086,China [2]Laboratoryof Climate Change Miigation and Carbon Neutraliy Henan Universiy.Zhengzhou 450001,China [3]Tsinghua-CTG Joint Center for Climate Governance and Low-carbon Transformation,Tsinghua Univerisity,Beijing 100086,China [4]Monitoring and Assessment Center for Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality of CMA,State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2023年第6期941-951,共11页气候变化研究进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Special Project (42341202 and 72140005)of the National Natural Science Foundation of China,Pathways to Achieve Carbon Neutrality。

摘　　要：In 2021,China updated its nationally determined contributions(NDCs)under the Paris Agreement,which prompts a more accurate mea-surement of its emissions inventory and a reasonable pathway toward carbon neutrality by 2060.This study reviews the estimates using the bottom-up emissions factor method or the top-down atmospheric CO_(2) concentration inversion method to derive China's CO_(2) emissions inventory and finds that CO_(2) emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes in Chinese mainland range from 11.3-12.0 GtCO_(2) in 2021.Based on a comprehensive review of pathways proposed by domestic and international studies and an analysis of the origins of their differences,we proposed the Tsinghua-CMA pathway that coordinates the 2℃global temperature rise control target with China's current CO_(2) emissions status and mitigation policies.The pathway requires China's CO_(2) emissions to peak around 2028-2029 at about 12.8 GtCO_(2),then decline steadily to about 11.2 GtCO_(2) in 2035,3.6 GtCO_(2) in 2050,and 0.9 GtCO_(2) in 2060.Compared to a reference scenario without updated NDCs,this pathway would result in an economic cost of about 0.9%cumulative GDP between 2020 and 2060,only 1/4-1/3 of the cost associated with pathways that align with the 1.5℃target.We recommended that China improves emissions accounting by cross-validating bottom-up and top-down approaches and regularly updating the pathway toward carbon neutrality while maintaining consistency with its evolving CO_(2) emissions inventory,policy trends,and global CO_(2) emission budget updates.

关 键 词：CO_(2)emissions inventory Emissions accounting Bottom-up emissions factor Top-down inversion Emissions pathway Carbon neutrality 2℃target 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X321