收入不确定性、家庭部门资产负债表调整与宏观经济波动  

Income Uncertainty,Household Balance Sheet Adjustment,and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

作　　者：宁磊[1,2] 王敬博 罗扬煌 Ning Lei;Wang Jingbo;Luo Yanghuang(School of Economics,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics;Key Laboratory of Mathematical Economics(SUFE);Shanghai Securities News)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学经济学院 [2]上海财经大学数理经济学重点实验室 [3]上海证券报社

出　　处：《管理世界》2024年第3期37-55,共19页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目72373090、72273091、71874105的资助。

摘　　要：有效需求不足是制约我国经济高质量发展的症结之一,近年来出现的家庭部门资产负债表的剧烈调整则是这一症结的集中体现。针对这一新现象,当前经济学理论提供的解释与中国宏观环境并不一致,难以提供实际有效的政策指引。本文认为,在中国房产流动性较低的情形下,收入不确定性冲击是理解中国家庭资产负债表调整的关键。首先,利用我国2015年第1季度~2022年第4季度的宏观季度数据,以及新冠疫情前后各省份数据,本文的实证研究发现,不确定性冲击确实会触发家庭资产负债表调整。其次,通过将中国家庭资产负债表特征纳入不完全市场异质性代理人模型,并将收入不确定性冲击进一步区分为改变整体收入水平的失业风险升高与不改变整体收入水平的收入波动性增加;本文的定量研究发现,除降低消费、增加储蓄外,收入波动性增加还会降低家庭对房产的需求,激发家庭提前还款行为,造成房价下降、债务收缩、消费疲软与储蓄激增并存的现象。本文的研究为理解当前有效需求不足,以及恢复和扩大消费提供了参考。Insufficient effective demand is a critical issue hindering high-quality development in the Chinese economy,and the household balance sheet adjustment during recent years is a symptom of this broader economic challenge.Traditional economic theories fall short of providing consistent explanations within China's unique macroeconomic context,making it difficult to provide practical and effective policy guidance.This paper argues that the income uncertainty shocks are crucial to understanding adjustments in Chinese household balance sheets in the context of relatively low liquidity in housing assets.Through an empirical analysis of macro time-series quarterly data from Q12015 to Q42022,coupled with province-level cross-sectional data from periods before and after the COVID-19 outbreak,we uncover that such uncertainty shocks significantly contribute to adjustments in household balance sheets.Then,we quantitatively test the story and the mechanism by integrating the concept into a model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents and distinguishing the income uncertainty shocks into an increase of idiosyncratic earnings risk and an increase of unemployment risk.The quantitative results reveal that,besides reducing consumption and boosting savings,heightened idiosyncratic earnings risk also compels households to decrease housing demand and accelerate debt repayment;these actions collectively precipitate a downturn in housing prices,a reduction in household debt,a sustained low consumption growth rates,and a marked rise in household deposits.Our paper sheds new light on the prevailing issue of insufficient effective demand and proposes policy recommendations for revitalizing and stimulating aggregate consumption in China.

关 键 词：收入不确定性 家庭资产负债表调整 不完全市场 生命周期模型 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济] F124.8